The Near-Impossibility of Swing Voting (movie spoiler alert)

by Ivan Osorio on July 31, 2008 · 1 comment

Last night I attended a preview of the new film Swing Vote, which is being released tomorrow. It revolves around one man, Bud Johnson (Kevin Costner), who through a series of odd events winds up getting to re-cast a botched ballot in a tied presidential election in the state whose electoral votes will tip the election to either candidate, New Mexico.

Such is the scenario often put forth by non-voters — given its extreme unlikelihood, the chances that your vote will make any difference in an election’s outcome are essentially nil. However, I doubt a discussion about the rationality of voting is what inspired the makers of Swing Vote.

The film moves toward a warm and fuzzy bipartisan ending that is intended to drive home the importance of voting — and becoming duly informed to do so — as a “civic duty.” Yet the movie’s premise is so outlandish that instead of a civics lesson, it rather reinforces the view of voting as irrational, an expenditure of effort toward no discernible effect (under normal circumstances, at least) — or, in other words, that there is no Bud Johnson.

{ 1 comment }

Alex Harris August 1, 2008 at 4:21 am

Obviously, this is a good place to make a plug for GMU Bryan Caplan's book The Myth of the Rational Voter. Caplan discusses precisely this issue – why people vote and why they vote the way they do, given that it is not in their self-interest. Caplan contends that the gains from voting – the probability of affecting an outcome times the magnitude of that outcome – are so ridiculously low as to be easily overridden by biases such as those "warm and fuzzy" feelings you speak of.

Comments on this entry are closed.

Previous post:

Next post: