January 2012

The latest figures on consumer credit from the Federal Reserve show that consumers are hunkering down, especially on credit card debt. Revolving credit outstanding – mainly credit card debt – fell at an annual rate of 9-3/4 percent in February 2009 from the month before. Revolving credit outstanding fell from $963.5 billion in January to $955.7 billion in February. Pools of securitized assets based on credit card debt fell from $448.1 billion to $440.3 billion. These balances are no longer carried on the books of the credit card issuers.

Delinquency figures on credit cards for the last quarter 2008 rose but in a range near the four-year average, according to the American Bankers Association. Their latest survey showed that credit card delinquencies increased from 4.20 percent to 4.52 percent — the four-year average is 4.47 percent.

When it comes to things such as environmental policy, the Progressives have been rather successful at promoting their world view.  They realized that it would be futile to argue that property rights and human ingenuity could not solve anything – so they did not try (immediately) to socialize oil or other sub-surface minerals but they did succeed in derailing the evolutionary process by which institutions emerged to resolve emerging problems.  The economist Ronald Coase  noted this in an essay pointing out that the EMS (Emergency Medical Services) was well on its way to being homesteaded with rules for allowing multiple uses – and then the Feds created the Federal Communication Commission and the spectrum is still terribly managed to this day.  

The environment is valuable and valued by many.  The difficulty is that we have relegated its “protection” and “management” to bureaucrats – and suppressed the evolution of property rights in environmental resources (wildlife, groundwater, fisheries).  These resources remain as common property resources – and we experience repeatedly the Tragedy of the Commons.  However, the most distressing aspect of the debate over environmental policy,  is that the view gaining prevalence from the Progressive side is decidedly anti-human, and anti-technology at its core.  

There are many features of the growing anti-human-relevant-science campaign.  

  •  One is the selection of the fearful – the Malthusian wing of this movement that sees “technology” as change, as a move into an untested future and, thus, to be slowed if not banned.  These people champion the Precautionary Principle – a totally Luddite rule.  Has there ever been a market innovation (one that we hoped people would buy) that created more harm than good?
  • The Economic Rational wing, which has championed “comparative effectiveness” and so on.  After all, they argue, it would be foolish and wasteful to approve a new drug or device that was not “cost effective for the median individual.”  A wonderful capture of the rational language but, of course, that approach argues that we can know in advance that a specific innovation will or will not prove beneficial (the French minitel system comes to mind).  Most – all – innovations appear first as clunky, expensive toys or (for a very few) necessities.  The purchasers are the ‘Early Adopters’ – often rich or eager to “be the first on their block.”  However, the freedom to create an infant market for a product that would be too expensive and too inefficient for most people made it possible for the thousand dollar 1940s television sets with tiny blurry pictures and very low quality to become the few hundred 34-inch flat screen marvels of today.  We will suffer in many areas for this loss but the greatest losses may be in the medical innovation area.
  • The Government Research Must be Dominant school is characterized by those who sought on “scientific” grounds for removal of any restraints on stem cell research – not because such research was banned (private parties were largely free), but rather because it meant that their approved source of scientific funding – the government – was kept from the field.  Indeed, this group is much more ambitious – their effort to drive the market from the marketplace of ideas is one of the most threatening themes.  Research that has been funded by a company, individuals who have done consulting or worked for a company, groups who’ve received support from a company – all inherently more suspect that a government-funded scientist.  One can expect that such individuals and the research work they do will soon have to wear a yellow C (for corporate) patch on their clothes, appended on every page of their journal articles.  
  • The Science Good, Technology Bad sub-class.  This refers to the observations of Joel Mokyr and others.  That it has been the close link between (largely) non-economic driven science and (largely) economic-driven technology that transformed the slow progress of most of mankind’s history to the exponential growth we have experienced in the last several centuries.  Brilliant individuals have popped up from time to time throughout history.  They expand man’s knowledge and some small use is made of that knowledge to improve man’s welfare.  In the Industrial Revolution, however, the growth of economic freedom created a more receptive and attentive audience for such knowledge.  Electricity would be discovered and Edison and others would immediately begin to think, “What is it good for?”  Then, in turn, they would go back to the science and note – “this worked OK but … why?” and those questions would both prompt and interest the science community in expanding knowledge in directions more likely to prove human beneficial.  The resulting positive “feed back loop” is critical to progress. This group would sever that link — Science Good, Technology Bad!!

As I have stated above, the environment is valuable, and its preservation is valuable to many.  Therefore, at CEI, one of the things we have tried to do in our work is not ridicule the environmentalists or argue that environmental values are irrelevant.  We simply make the point that the Malthusian goals – less people, less consumption, less technology – is far less inspiring that the view of mankind as the Ultimate Resource.  

I am proud of the work we have done, but we have much work to do to improve our marketing skills.  The other side of this debate seems rather adept at garnering popularity, and is much better funded.  My message to those who may share our views is that we needed to find ways to create a more effective and powerful alliance between the entrepreneurial elements of the business community and the free market community.  We face many problems.  Keep up the good work – and help find the scientist-entrepreneurs who have not succumbed to this insanity.  There must be a handful of people who recognize that the politicization of science by conservatives was stupid, but the politicization of science by the Luddites is suicidal.

At the Bonn, Germany, UN meetings on global warming issues, India urged rich countries not to use “green” protectionism by imposing carbon tariffs on carbon-intensive products from poor countries.  India’s special envoy to the talks, Shyam Saran, was quoted as saying:

“That is simply not acceptable, that is protectionism.”

“We should be very careful that we don’t start going in that direction. We welcome any kind of arrangement … where there can be a sharing of experience or best practices for any of these energy-intensive sectors.”

Earlier, China’s top climate change official had warned about possible retaliation if carbon tariffs were assessed, as was suggested by the U.S. Secretary of Energy.  Sounds like this issue is shaping up as the rich against the poor, i.e., already industrialized and developed countries attempting to penalize those emerging economies dependent on energy use for their continued economic growth.

Like the acronym for the Geithner and Summers Plan — GASP — in the article by Laurence J Kotlikoff and Jeffrey Sachs. And “gasp” is indeed the reaction to the $1 trillion plan to deal with financial institutions’ toxic assets.  As Kotlifkoff and Sachs note, the plan can easily be gamed by participants:

The situation is even worse that it looks, however, since the GASP can be gamed by the banks that own the toxic assets to boost the purchase prices for their bad assets even higher than has been suggested to date.

Yesterday DeSmogBlog added 7 more entries to its Global Warming Denier Database, which is touted as “an extensive database of individuals involved in the global warming denial industry.”

I took a look at the Database, and I am outraged. Why I am I not on the list!!??

Not only am I an unabashed global warming denier*, I personally contribute almost as much carbon dioxide to the atmosphere as mega-emitter Al Gore, alarmist hypocrite.

I understand that I might be too small a fish to warrant entry onto the list. After all, I am a lowly policy analyst. That said, the author of the Global Warming Denier Database, Kevin Grandia, lists “event planning” as an area of expertise, and I’ve been a caterer, so perhaps I am suitably qualified.

In any case, if you are reading this, please contact DeSmogBlog (here) and demand that I, William Yeatman, join the list of global warming deniers.

* It hasn’t warmed in 7 years. Al Gore says that “there is one relationship that is more powerful than all the others and it is this: When there is more carbon dioxide, the temperature gets warmer.” Well, emissions keep going up, yet temperatures stay the same. Where’s the warming?

Many people believe that salt is bad for your health, but John Tierney’s column today in the New York Times points out the body of research that shows it ain’t necessarily so. Yet New York City politicians are embarking on a “nationwide” campaign to force food companies and restaurants to reduce consumers’ salt intake by one-half.

On a somewhat related theme Megan McArdle asks why so many “green” products don’t perform as well as the standard ones. She says:

In fact, when I look back at almost every “environmentally friendly” alternative product I’ve seen being widely touted as a cost-free way to lower our footprint, held back only by the indecent vermin at “industry” who don’t care about the environment, I notice a common theme: the replacement good has really really sucked compared to the old, inefficient version.  In some cases, the problem could be overcome by buying a top-of-the-line model that costs, at the very least, several times what the basic models do.  In other cases, as with my asthma inhalers, we were just stuck.

McArdle points out that there are usually trade-offs involved, which policymakers may not recognize or consider. That’s what Tierney also showed.

In today’s Wall Street Journal, Mary Anastasia O’Grady takes on the Obama administration’s approach to foreign aid, which, she argues, amounts merely to maintaining a failing system — specifically, giving more cash to the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB):

Does it follow that poverty persists because the amounts have been just too measly to do the job? It does for Mr. Geithner and the foreign-aid brigades. But rather than rely on those with vested interests, it’s more useful to look at the empirical evidence. A 2006 paper titled “Foreign Aid, Income Inequality and Poverty,” from the research department of the IDB itself, looked at the period 1971-2002 and found “some weak evidence that foreign aid is conducive to the improvement of the distribution of income [sic]. When the quality of institutions is taken into account, however, this result is not robust. This finding is consistent with recent empirical research on aid ineffectiveness in achieving economic growth or promoting democratic institutions.”

So now that we know it doesn’t work, Mr. Geithner wants more of it. This is what the late, great development economist Peter Lord Bauer called “the disregard of reality.” In a 1987 essay in the Cato Journal, he called the claim that poverty is a trap that cannot be escaped without external aid an “obvious conflict with simple reality.” “All developed countries began as underdeveloped,” Bauer wrote. “If the notion of the vicious circle were valid, mankind would still be in the Stone Age at best.”

She may be speaking of Latin America, but the problem is true everywhere Western donor nations ladle dollops of aid to poor countries. The notion that public policy problems cannot be solved by throwing money at them should not be controversial — yet when it comes to poverty in developing countries, that remains the largely dominant approach.

Thankfully, however, Mary O’Grady’s critique appears part of a growing chorus, as the media attention that Zambian author Dambisa Moyo is receiving for her new book Dead Aid: Why Aid Is Not Working and Why There is a Better Way for Africa. Speaking at the Cato Institute last Friday (video available here), Moyo also strongly criticized the view of poverty as a “trap,” which she described as product of a condescending Western “pity” that denigrates aid recipients’ resourcefulness and abilities.

May the chorus grow louder.

Arkansas Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln announced today that she will oppose the so-called Employee Free Choice Act, also known as teh “card check” bill. With Pennsylvania Republican Arlen Specter announcing his opposition last week, pro-EFCA forces’ chances to muster 60 votes to break a Republican-led filibuster look increasingly slim — for this Congress.

We can now expect organized labor to sink millions (from member dues, of course) into Senate races in 2010.

For more on card check, see here.

Your host Richard Morrison sits down this week with special guest co-hosts Michelle Minton and William Yeatman for LibertyWeek 37 (regular co-host Cord Blomquist is on the road). We start off with a profile of visionary physicist and global warming skeptic Freeman Dyson, then spend some time WILBing around to improve our productivity at the office, and move on to sixteen full ounces of barkeeper honesty. Finally we take a look at the Chicago factor in Olympic News.

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