January 2012

Compare and Contrast Biofuel Predictions

by Brian McGraw on December 22, 2010 · 4 comments

in Energy, Ethanol

From the Ethanol Producer Magazine:

For years, cellulosic ethanol has been five years away from commercial viability. With several companies making significant progress in 2010 towards groundbreaking and five expected to be in production, will 2011 be the year that cellulosic ethanol finally makes its commercial debut?

…

The U.S. EPA, which still projects volumes well below the initial targets, on Nov. 29, announced the final volume requirements for the 2011 renewable fuel standard, with the cellulosic biofuel volume set at only 6.6 million gallons. The EPA named DuPont Danisco Cellulosic Ethanol LLC, Fiberight LLC, KL Energy Corp., Range Fuels Inc. and KiOR, a cellulosic diesel fuel producer, as the companies it expects to produce cellulosic biofuels in 2011.

From the chief technology officer of a renewable energy company:

So Congress mandated  in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act that we would use 100 million gallons of cellulosic ethanol in 2010, 250 million gallons in 2011, and then rapidly expand to 16 billion gallons per year by 2022. At the time, I saw a very appropriate analogy that summed up the situation: “It’s like trying to solve a traffic problem by mandating hovercraft. Except we don’t have hovercraft.”

I tried to bring a dose of reality to the debate in this blog. I have worked on cellulosic ethanol myself. I know first hand the challenges. Biomass has low energy density relative to fossil fuels, and thus a conversion facility must have easy logistical access. In most cases, this means that biomass must be sourced close to the facility. This puts some limits on the size of biomass facilities, so they suffer from the lack of economies of scale. I have harped on this logistical issue for years, and a newly released study from Purdue reiterates the points I have made: “Without solving the logistical issues, commercial production of second-generation biofuels will not take place.”

…

Conclusion – Technological Breakthroughs Can Not Be Mandated

Personally, I don’t believe large-scale commercialization of cellulosic ethanol will ever be viable due to the aforementioned fundamental issues with biomass conversion and efficiency, and will ultimately be relegated to the role of a niche fuel provider

There are still numerous logistical and technological improvements that will be needed before cellulosic ethanol can even be produced on a small scale. This is coming from someone who has worked in the industry for a long time (note to detractors: not an oil industry shill, etc.). The likelihood of ratcheting that production up to the 16 billion gallons eventually mandated by the RFS2 by 2022 (while absorbing some imports from Brazil) seems very small.

And is it worthwhile? The past few years have brought a huge shift against corn ethanol because of the food/fuel problem, environmental issues caused by excessive fertilization, reliance on fossil fuel inputs, debate over actual net greenhouse gas reductions, complications over increasing blends past E10, etc. If the non-ethanol folks are united against the subsidies for corn ethanol, might they realize that the RFS2 isn’t such a good idea either? If subsidies for corn ethanol aren’t a good idea, why are mandates?

Cellulosic ethanol indeed could reduce GHG’s in ways that corn ethanol cannot, though this hasn’t been shown to be possible on a large scale. And there is evidence that it might not be possible — cellulosic ethanol was discovered in the 1800s and commercialization has failed before. The government is conducting science experiments with our money. And when the science experiments don’t produce the intended results, the lobbyists stick around asking for more money and shifting the original expectations.

The ethanol industry is gearing up for battle in 2011. If the wide spectrum of groups have all realized that tax credits for corn ethanol is not a good idea, doesn’t it follow that building out infrastructure is an equally bad idea, if the end result is increased production of corn ethanol?

A take-away quote:

The key, says Tom Buis, CEO of Growth Energy, is educating new legislators about ethanol. “We have to go educate people about the issue and the facts,” he says. “We think if the facts get out there, we win.”

Funny, I could have said the same thing one month ago.

Morning Media Summary

by Lee Doren on December 22, 2010

in Economy, Energy, Environment, International, Legal, Personal Liberty, Regulation, Trade

Tech:

E-Mail Gets an Instant Makeover:
“Signs you’re an old fogey: You still watch movies on a VCR, listen to vinyl records and shoot photos on film. And you enjoy using e-mail.”

Avatar is ‘most pirated film of 2010’:
“James Cameron’s blockbuster was downloaded 16.6m times on one file-sharing site alone, TorrentFreak said.”

Global Warming / Environment / Energy:

Ding-Ding-Ding! Electric Cars Likely To Be Made Noisier By Law:
“In one particularly hilarious scene in the TV show Weeds, Mary-Louise Parker’s soccer mom/drug dealer character inspires a scary drug lord to buy several Toyota Priuses after he successfully carries out a drive-by shooting while riding in hers. ”

There’s a mini ice age coming says man who beats weather experts:
“Well, folks, it’s tea-time on Sunday and for anyone involved in keeping people moving it has been a hell of a weekend. Thousands have had their journeys wrecked, tens of thousands have been delayed getting away for Christmas; and for those Londoners who feel aggrieved by the performance of any part of our transport services, I can only say that we are doing our level best.”

Insurance / Gambling:

Options for gambling regulation published:
“A discussion paper on the future regulation of gambling has been approved by the Government.”

Health / Safety:

Put it in writing for workers with children:
“Is Canada becoming a nanny state? A recent decision by the Canadian Human Rights Tribunal dramatically expanded employers’ obligations to staff with children, and the impact could be far-reaching. ”

Economics:

Seven States To Raise Minimum Wage For 2011:
“Approximately 647,000 minimum wage workers across the country will be ringing in this new year with a modest pay raise, as Arizona, Colorado, Montana, Ohio, Oregon, Vermont and Washington are set to increase their minimum wages by nine to twelve cents on January 1. All seven of these states will have minimum wages above the federal level, which is currently $7.25 an hour, but Washington will have the highest at $8.67.”

Government liabilities rose $2 Trillion in FY 2010: Treasury:
“The Financial Report of the United States, which applies corporate-style accrual accounting methods to Washington, showed the government’s liabilities exceeded assets by $13.473 trillion. That compared with a $11.456 trillion gap a year earlier.”

Census shows slowing US growth, brings GOP gains:
“Republican-leaning states will gain at least a half dozen House seats thanks to the 2010 census, which found the nation’s population growing more slowly than in past decades but still shifting to the South and West.”

Budget Cuts To Darken SoCal City Street Lights:
“To trim $9 million from their budget, Vista officials say they will shut off half of the city’s residential street lights in March unless property owners agree to pay higher lighting fees.”

Unemployed get another jobless benefit _ free yoga:
“A light breeze, like a mother blowing on a baby’s boo-boo, falls from ceiling fans and tickles their backs. The room is dark, silent, until they crawl out of child’s pose and chant, “Omm.””

Prisons get education funds:
“An analysis by the Press-Register in Mobile revealed that the state Department of Corrections has received $118 million of Alabama’s $1.1 billion in federal stimulus funds for education since 2009. Officials said the money covered health care costs for 26,000 inmates and salaries and benefits for about 4,200 corrections officers and other employees for 3½ months.”

Legal:

Data Breach Could Test Massachusetts Law:
“The Massachusetts Attorney General has been notified that financial data on 1,800 residents was exposed in a database breach linked to the CitySights NY sightseeing firm. Could this be the test case for enforcement of the State’s nine month-old data privacy law?The leak of financial information on more than 100,000 customers of the CitySights sightseeing tour company could prove to be an early test of the nation’s strongest data privacy law.”

Use Tobacco Settlement Money To Save Lives:
“How many more statistics do we need to see? How many times do Connecticut legislators need to hear that tobacco-related illnesses result in astronomical costs in both human lives and in costs to society? As pointed out by Dr. Andrew Salner [Opinion, Dec. 19, "For Anti-Tobacco Investment, A Huge Payoff"], Connecticut has a poor record of funding tobacco prevention and cessation programs despite receiving more than $140 million from the tobacco settlement since 2000 and having one of the highest cigarette taxes in the nation.”

Labor:

Labor department fails to release union corruption tracking report:
“The Office of Labor Management Statistics (OLMS) was supposed to release an annual report tracking labor unions and evidence of corruption in union leadership in January 2010 but still hasn’t released the document.”

SEIU aims to organize cafeteria workers:
“The union that helped organize the workers who clean scores of buildings in Pittsburgh is now working to achieve the same sort of parity for people working in university cafeterias in the area.”

Transportation/ Land Use:

High-Speed Rail Uses Federal Funds to Extend South:
“At Monday morning’s board meeting, California High-Speed Rail Authority officials decided to apply federal funds to additional tracks 66 miles south to Bakersfield, rather than northward. They said the $616 million-plus initial funds from the project could pay for the entire extension in the Central Valley.”

Alcohol Regulatory Roundup: December 21st

by Michelle Minton on December 21, 2010

in Odds & Ends

Maryland: Lawmakers will likely pass a measure next year allowing direct shipping of wine to Maryland residents. Vineyards, especially smaller wine makers, claim that direct shipping increases demand and their ability to compete with larger producers. Wholesalers, as usual, oppose the measure as it circumvents their long-held grip on the distribution of alcohol in Maryland.

New Jersey:  An appeals court in New Jersey determined that while the ban on direct shipping of wine to state residents is constitutional, other parts of New Jersey’s alcohol beverage control laws are in violation of the dormant commerce clause.  In the case Freeman v. Fischer, two New Jersey wine enthusiasts who “seek access to more Kosher wines,” and a California winery brought a suit against Jerry Fischer, New Jersey’s Director of Alcoholic Beverage Control. In his opinion, Pennsylvania District Court Judge Louis H. Pollak (sitting by designation) wrote that legal precedent affirms the state’s right to enforce a three-tier system, but that a ban on direct shipping for only out-of-state wineries would be a violation of the dormant commerce clause. Prior to the 2005 Supreme Court case Granholm v. Heald, New Jersey did allow in-state wineries to ship directly to consumers, but rescinded the ability in anticipation of the outcome of the Supreme Court case.

Judge Pollak did strike at certain provision of New Jersey alcohol beverage control laws, including New Jersey’s allowing certain in-state wineries to obtain licenses that allow them to bypass the three-tier system by selling directly to retailers while forcing out-of-state producers to funnel their product through wholesalers. Judge Pollak declared that because the licensing requirements prevent out-of-state vineyards from obtaining the privilege of bypassing wholesalers, they are discriminatory and reversed the District Court’s decision in favor of New Jersey’s liquor control laws. The full opinion can be read here

New York: State lawmakers today will discuss the possible banning of energy drink sales to Suffolk County residents under the age of 19 years old. While the story doesn’t directly involve alcohol, the proposal comes as a result of last month’s alcoholic energy drink hysteria.

South Carolina: Small breweries plan on challenging state laws that prevent tasting and sales of beer on premise at the brewery. South Carolina law requires distribution of beer and spirits through an independent wholesaler.

Photo Credit: Flickr Photostream

Afternoon Links: December 21, 2010

by Nicole Ciandella on December 21, 2010

in Zeitgeist

1. “The Top Ten Booze-Fueled Holiday Songs.”

2. Want to buy a credit card that turns into a knife?

3. Radley Balko has a back-and-forth with Balloon Juice‘s John Cole on Reason, DADT, and “the Balloon Juice fallacy.”

4. A 44-year-old woman with brain damage has an inability to experience fear. So scientists decided to take her to a haunted house and show her The Shining.

5. Seattle buses are carrying ads accusing the federal government of funding Isreali war crimes. The people of Seattle are less than thrilled.

Photo Credit: Flickr Photostream

Obamacare Makes State Budget Problems Worse

by Hans Bader on December 21, 2010 · 1 comment

in Healthcare, Legal, Regulation

Obamacare is making state budget problems much worse, as governors now lament. Earlier, CEI filed an amicus brief in Florida v. HHS on behalf of two governors explaining how the radical changes to state Medicaid programs resulting from Obamacare violated limits on congressional power under the Constitution’s spending clause. Some of the fiscal burdens Obamacare imposes on states are obviously huge, while many others are ambiguous, unpredictable, and contingent on bureaucratic caprice, and uncertain future events.

Governors like Phil Bredesen (D-Tenn.) and Donald Carcieri (R-R.I.) warned earlier about the crippling costs of Obamacare to state budgets, but they were ignored by Obama and Congressional Democrats in their headlong rush to pass the health care bill. An adviser to Gov. Bredesen, James Blumstein (a professor of constitutional and health care law at Vanderbilt), argues that Obamacare is a violation of constitutional limits on Congress’s power under the spending clause.

CEI Podcast — December 21, 2010: What’s Next for Immigration Reform?

by Ryan Young on December 21, 2010

in International, Legal, Mobility, Personal Liberty, Regulation

Have a listen here.

CEI Policy Analyst Alex Nowrasteh goes over the good and the bad of the DREAM Act, which recently stalled in the Senate. The bill would have offered permanent residency to undocumented immigrants under age 16 if they meet several requirements over the next six years, such as graduating from high school, staying in good moral standing, and speaking English. Alex then offers some ideas for the next attempt at liberalizing America’s Byzantine immigration system.

Morning Media Summary

by Lee Doren on December 21, 2010

in Economy, Energy, Environment, International, Legal, Personal Liberty, Regulation, Trade

Tech:

FCC to Vote on Internet Regulation Plan Despite Economic Warnings:
“Lawmakers are on high alert as the Federal Communications Commission prepares to vote on a plan to regulate the Internet despite warnings that it could choke industry investment and hurt the economy as a whole.”

What happens after we have ‘net neutrality?’:
“Here’s what will most likely happen today: In the morning, the five members of the Federal Communications Commission will gather in a big room. The two Republican commissioners will read aloud passionate statements opposing the Democrats’ obsession with fixing a thing that is not broken. The three Democratic commissioners will read aloud passionate statements commending one another for saving the Internet
from a dystopian future conjured out of whole cloth by paranoid public interest groups.”

AT&T agrees to buy wireless spectrum from Qualcomm:
“Wireless carriers are under tremendous pressure to upgrade their networks to handle the traffic generated by a new generation of smartphone applications and the increasing consumer consumption of multimedia files downloaded or streamed to a growing multitude of devices.”

Google, Richard Blumenthal square off:
“More legal wrangling could be in store for Google now that it has refused to turn over to state investigators the e-mails and other data it accidentally collected while mapping neighborhoods.”

Music Web Sites Dispute Legality of Their Closing:
“When federal authorities shut down five Web sites last month on suspicion of copyright infringement, they gave no warning and offered no details of their investigation, and they have not filed any criminal charges since.”

Global Warming / Environment / Energy:

Schwarzenegger says he’d like a job working for Obama:
“Schwarzenegger, who counts legislation combating global warming as one of his signature achievements in office, suggested he might be interested in a post dealing with energy or the environment.”

Napolitano Says DHS to Begin Battling Climate Change as Homeland Security Issue:
“At an all-day White House conference on “environmental justice,” Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano announced that her department is creating a new task force to battle the effects of climate change on domestic security operations.”

Insurance / Gambling:

Business Rx: Online Gambling Without Money:
“With online poker being so popular, Eric Mintzer saw an opportunity to create a free poker Web site with a twist — instead of gambling money, poker lovers can stake themselves with credits earned by watching advertisements. They can use those credits to play poker with other users and cash in their virtual winnings for other incentives.”

Health / Safety:

Health Care Law:
“For the first time since Democrats in Congress passed the health care bill in March, a majority of U.S. voters believe the measure is likely to be repealed.”

Economics:

$2tn debt crisis threatens to bring down 100 US cities:
“More than 100 American cities could go bust next year as the debt crisis that has taken down banks and countries threatens next to spark a municipal meltdown, a leading analyst has warned.”

Legal:

‘Long-Shot’ Cert Petition Alleges Tobacco Settlement Violated Compact Clause:
“A “long-shot” petition for certiorari references a little-known clause in the Constitution in an attack on the $200 billion multistate tobacco settlement.”

NJ Gov. Chris Christie commutes Aitken’s sentence:
“New Jersey Republican Gov. Chris Christie commuted the sentence of Brian Aitken’s Monday, reducing his sentence from seven years in prison to time already served. According to Christie’s order, he will be released as soon as it’s “administratively possible.””

‘Pigford 101’ With Breitbart on Hugh Hewitt Show:
“Andrew Breitbart appeared on the Hugh Hewitt Show and laid out the latest on the unfolding Pigford scandal broken by BigGovernment.com.”

Labor:

The Buzz: SEIU deal better for workers than old furlough program, LAO says:
“The numbers, albeit late, are in: The deal that SEIU Local 1000 cut with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in October is better than three-day-per-month furloughs for the 95,000 state employees the union represents.”

Watch Out: More Obama union pay-offs in the works:
“On Friday, President Obama mollified Big Labor bosses at the White House. Which means you better watch your wallets.”

Transportation/ Land Use:

Rail authority gets $616m more:
“Officials agreed on Monday to nearly double the length of the first segment of California’s planned high-speed rail line to allay concerns that the initial route will not reach major population centers in the Central Valley.”

New York Energy Drink Ban Hearing at 2:30 on Tuesday

by Michelle Minton on December 20, 2010

in Odds & Ends

As I wrote earlier this month, lawmakers in New York’s Suffolk County want to ban energy drinks for teens under the age of 19 years old. Perhaps as a result of the Four Loko hysteria of previous months, some lawmakers believe (without any reliable scientific evidence) that the contents of energy drinks are unsafe for teens and want to ban the sale of energy drinks to minors. The proposed bill, which will be discussed at the public Suffolk County hearing, is defined as:

“a soft drink that is classified as a dietary supplement not regulated by the Food and Drug Administration and that contains 80 or more milligrams of caffeine per 8 fluid ounces and generally includes a combination of methylxanthines, B vitamins, herbal ingredients and other ingredients which are advertised as being specifically designed to provide or increase energy. “

Pretty much the only drink that would fall under that category is five-hour energy.

According to a “nutrition expert,” whatever that means, at the Cornell Cooperative Extension: “Energy drinks can cause sleeplessness and high blood pressure in teens.”

The hearing is open to the public and, as far as I know, there is no restriction on the age of attendees. I encourage many people to attend.

Here’s a little video of office colleagues discussing the various pros and cons of energy drinks.

Alcohol Regulatory Roundup: December 20, 2010

by Michelle Minton on December 20, 2010

in Odds & Ends

While most lawmakers have checked out for the holiday vacation already (mentally and/or physically), there are still some movers and shakers out there getting frothed up about alcohol issues. Here are few stories and updates on booze regulations and regulators around the nation:

District of Columbia: Charles Brodsky, the Chairman of the DC Alcoholic Beverage Regulation Administration, is in hot water over a possible conflict of interest between his for-profit business (promoting sporting events) and his duties as Chairman of ABRA.

“It’s an abuse of power,” said Don Dinan, general counsel to the D.C. Democratic State Committee.  “It creates a direct conflict of interest if a person in an extremely powerful position over the fate of the neighborhood represented by an ANC, especially ANC 2E in Georgetown where liquor licenses are a key component in the quality of life in that neighborhood, to ask the ANC to endorse something that benefits him privately. That’s an outrage.”

Maryland: Corkage is getting a step closer to reality. At the Thursday night meeting of the Maryland House of Delegates, a bill was proposed for Prince George’s County and Montgomery county restaurants that would let  patrons bring in their own bottles of wine.

Del. Jolene Ivey (D-Dist. 47) of Cheverly is sponsoring the Prince George’s County version, and said the proposal is a “modest” way of aiding local restaurant owners, many of whom saw a decline in business during the economic downturn. The bill would only apply to restaurants that hold liquor licenses.

North Carolina: As I reported last week, NC’s gov is considering privatizing that state-run liquor stores and (surprise!) the liquor control boards in the state aren’t happy. In a letter to legislators the NC Association of ABC Boards Jon Carr, a lobbyist for the boards said

“North Carolina ranks 3rd among the 50 states and the District of Columbia in revenue per capita from the sale of spirits and 48th in per capita consumption. North Carolina’s control system for the sale of spirits works…”

Does it work? Well, I guess if your goal is to limit access and increases prices consumers pay, then it is working. But I wonder if that’s how North Carolinians see it.

Nebraska: The Nebraska Liquor Control Commission is seeking a ban on bar games that encourage “chugging and intoxication,” as part of a larger proposal restricting bar promotions.

“The rules being considered might even put a crimp on a popular annual fundraiser in Omaha and Lincoln called the “Barstool Open,” which raised $70,000 earlier this year for United Cerebral Palsy of Nebraska.”

Pennsylvania: Privatization of the government-owned liquor stores is on the table and a new poll suggests that Keystone Staters favor the idea.

Update on D.C. Metro Bag Checks

by Brian McGraw on December 20, 2010

in Odds & Ends

Though WMATA has supposedly launched the new bag searches, little has been reported on the experiences of D.C. metro riders. A small online petition was put up to collect signatures from those opposed to bag checks being implemented for Metrorail and Metrobus riders. Online petitions are not known for their effectiveness, but you may consider signing it if these new searches are troublesome.

Here is a video created by WMATA documenting how quick and painless the scans will be. I can only imagine that it will not always be that nice and easy. Given the frequency of delays on the Metro, potentially missing a train that has actually made it to the platform during rush hour will not painless.  The most-liked Youtube comment below the video reads: “Pretty sure WMATA is more likely to kill me than a terrorist attack? anywhere in the system.” An interesting comment, given their safety record.

Two telling quotes from Metro Transit Chief Michael Taborn:

Taborn said that transit officers will not perform an inspection without permission and that any rider can decline to have his or her bag inspected and leave the station. Asked if an agent would likely follow up with that rider, Taborn said, “There’s always a possibility.”

So, like our experiences with the TSA, if you decline the useless harassment and decide on a different method of commuting, be prepared to spend some time answering questions from the police.

The second quote:

Taborn said the decision to implement screenings now had nothing to do with a recent Metro bomb plot or with funding. He said the agency already has the equipment and manpower in place and that a series of grants from TSA will mean the initiative “won’t cost anything.”

As the saying goes, there’s no such thing as free equipment and manpower. Sure, using police officers and expensive equipment won’t cost anything for anyone. Wait, who funds the TSA again?

Photo Credit: Dave Reid’s Flickr Photostream.

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