January 2012

Over the last decade, waves of studies have claimed that individuals aren’t rational — that they often reject options that are in their best interest. That literature is being used to justify government “marketing” efforts to persuade people to accept government “advice” on everything from light bulbs to school lunches to home purchases. Cass Sunstein’s famous “nudge” approach — extolling the moral case for public interest propaganda is indicative of a growing interest in this approach by statists.

Auren Hoffman, a creative West Coast individual, recently wrote this related comment “Differences of Entrepreneurs and Consultants.” He describes a standard “test” similar to those produced by behavioralists.

I toss a coin. Heads you win $10,000. Tails you lose $6,000. Do you play and, if so, why?

To our elite friends, the answer seems simple. The expected payoff is $4,000 and, thus, you should play. People often reject that option, leading the Chattering Class to argue the irrationality of the individual.

But, Auren notes that the entrepreneurial individual will view this question in a larger context:

  • How do I know the coin is fair?  Maybe tails is much more likely to come up.  Can I test the coin by flipping it 500 times to gain more information?
  • How do taxes affect my wins and losses? Can I apply losses only to gambling gains? How are state and city taxes affected?
  • Do I have the cash to pay if I lose and do I get cash if I win? Will I have to show up with the money and, if so, is the transfer secure?  Can I get frequent flyer miles if I pay by credit card?
  • How can I be sure I’ll be paid if I win?  Will the money be held in a third-party escrow account?  How much will that (and other transaction costs) affect the overall economics of this bet?

Real world bets are made in context — there are always questions to be raised before rushing into a transaction. Many policy proposals from behavioral economists ignore that insight — that transactions have transaction costs. This is one reason why those policies are so often foolish.

Tech:

Sony Comes Clean: PlayStation Network Hackers Have Stolen Personal Data:
“A security breach in the Playstation Network by still unidentified hackers resulted in stolen personal information, Sony confirmed today.”

Global Warming / Environment / Energy:

Funnel Forms Live on Air:
Video

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National: Seventeen state attorneys general are asking Pabst Brewing Co. to lessen the alcohol content of its new “Blast” product. Blast, the 12 percent abv malt beverage is sold in 23.5 ounce cans and supposedly targeted toward young drinkers. Will Blast go the way of Four Loko?

California: California is set to ban energy drinks containing alcohol. State Senator Alex Padilla’s bill passed the senate on Monday and now awaits a general Assembly vote.

Colorado: Once again, the liquor store lobby wins in Colorado. After four consecutive years, the bill to allow grocery and convenience stores to sell full-strength beer once again died in the state Senate.

Florida: Two proposed bills, if passed, would make it more difficult and expensive for wineries to get the necessary licensing to directly ship their wines to individual consumers in Florida. The bills would require a $250 licensing fee from each winery, and require them to file a monthly report with the state with information on brands, quantity, and the price of wines shipped within the state. The bills also prohibit wineries that sell more than 250,000 gallons a year from any direct shipping in the state.

Illinois: A bill proposed in the Illinois General Assembly, which had the support of craft brewers, would allow craft breweries to distribute their own product in the state, but would exclude larger brewers from doing the same. Anheuser-Busch is rightfully arguing that it should also have the right to self-distribute in Illinois.

Of note: Since the bill was amended, it has lost support from the craft beer movement in the state.

Indiana: It looks like a push to allow cold beer in grocery stores in the state and Sunday sales of liquor won’t make it through the state legislature this year despite overwhelming consumer support.

Michigan: Michigan’s Governor Rick Synder approved a new law last week that would allow caterers with the right licensing to provide alcohol at events they cater — even if they aren’t on the business’s premises.

Minnesota:  Earlier this month the State Senate Commerce and Consumer Protection Committee unanimously approved a bill that would change the state’s outdated laws allowing breweries in the state to sell directly to consumers at the brewery. The push is backed by Brooklyn Center-based Surly brewery, which wants to build a $20 million brew pub and entertainment center. A couple of weeks later a similar billed made it through the House Commerce Committee. It now heads for full Senate and House votes.

Washington: The Washington State legislature approved three bills modifying and liberalizing state alcohol laws. The first bill allows customers to fill up their “growlers” (aka beer jugs) with “local brews on tap” at retail stores where previously only pubs and taverns were allowed to do so. The second bill permits Washington wineries and breweries to offer tastings at farmers markets. The third bill allows restaurants to waive corkage fees for patrons wishing to bring in their own wine to dine with.

Georgia: A bill that would allow Georgia residents decide whether or not they should have Sunday alcohol sales heads to the Governor’s desk after passing the state House earlier this month. Governor Nathan Deal has said he will sign the bill.

Cato’s Randal “Antiplanner” O’Toole discusses replacing the gas tax with tolls and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) taxes, the importance of signal coordination and adaptive cruise control in alleviating congestion, and my favorite: driverless cars. Watch it here:

Post image for High-Speed Rail: A Bad Idea in the U.S., a Bad Idea in China

Today, Stuart Varney of Fox Business Network hosted Andy Kunz, the honcho of the lobbying outfit U.S. High Speed Rail Association. His advisory board is comprised almost entirely of rent-seeking corporate types, career government bureaucrats, and anti-oil eco-ideologues, so it should come as no surprise that Mr. Kunz believes automobility is facing imminent collapse and that the United States needs to follow China’s lead and invest hundreds of billions of dollars into a high-speed rail network.

The problem with this sort of thinking is that it is completely off-base. Not only would high-speed intercity passenger rail almost certainly be a complete failure in the United States, China is not exactly a success story worth using as a model for the U.S. As the liberal Washington Post columnist Charles Lane noted in the paper last Saturday, China’s full-steam-ahead experiment with high-speed rail has been a disaster and has now begun to implode:

Seems [the rail] ministry has run up $271 billion in debt — roughly five times the level that bankrupted General Motors. But ticket sales can’t cover debt service that will total $27.7 billion in 2011 alone. Safety concerns also are cropping up.

The meager ticket sales to China’s growing urban professional class (which would also be the targeted demographic in the United States) can’t even cover interest on the construction debt, let alone operating costs and ongoing capital costs related to expansion and maintenance. Mr. Kunz claims he recognizes the severity of China’s high-speed rail corruption and shoddy construction problems, and that these sorts of issues should be “weeded out.” However, he doesn’t mention the consequences of the inherent risk to the taxpayers of such giant undertakings: cost overruns of 40 percent or more are the norm in public rail infrastructure projects.

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A USA Today/Gallup poll finds that:

[O]nly 38% of Americans say Obama definitely was born in the USA, and 18% say he probably was. Fifteen percent say he probably was born in another country, and 9% say he definitely was born elsewhere.

Republicans are inclined to say the president was born abroad by 43%-35%.

What makes this poll useful? As Oscar Wilde once explained, “By giving us the opinions of the uneducated, it keeps us in touch with the ignorance of the community.”

Tech:

Need IPv4 Addresses? Get ‘em here:
“A vibrant market for buying and selling IPv4 addresses is emerging, and policymakers are clarifying the rules associated with how network operators can monetize this precious Internet addressing resource.”

Global Warming / Environment / Energy:

Gallup: Majority of Human Race Does Not See Global Warming as Serious Threat:
“Most of the human race does not see global warming as a serious threat, according to a Gallup poll released last week that surveyed individuals in 111 countries.”

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Post image for Why John Quiggin Is Wrong About *I, Pencil*

In 1958, Leonard Read published I, Pencil, an essay written in the first person from the point of view of a pencil. In the essay, the pencil explains the unbelievable complexity of creating such a simple product. However, despite its simplicity, Read also argues, “Not a single person on the face of this earth knows how to make one.” In fact, there are no central planners dictating its creation.

Read’s seemingly unbelievable claim is argued to perfection after he cites the numerous raw materials, capital and labor required to produce a pencil, and the millions of people unknowingly cooperating throughout its production. Although the story is educational, the final message that Read attempts to convey is this: Leave all creative energies uninhibited. Society must have faith that free men and women will respond to the Invisible Hand without government coercion.

However, a few weeks ago, John Quiggin, wrote a response to I, Pencil (UPDATED LINK). In Quiggin’s rebuttal, he argues that a pencil is really a product of the mixed economy, not the product of the Invisible Hand. Moreover, Quiggin makes the astounding claim that markets aren’t the best way to organize production. Unfortunately for Quiggin, he fails miserably to argue his case, while ignoring numerous facts that refute his assertions.

Quiggin first argues that the wood used to produce the pencil was probably acquired in a forest managed by the US Forest Service or the Bureau of Land Management, or maybe a similar state agency. He writes the following:

Starting in the late 19th century, the US government (most notably under Theodore Roosevelt) judged that the nation’s forests were not likely to be adequately managed to ensure a supply of timber for, among other things, the production of pencils future generations if they relied on existing private property rights and the workings of the invisible hand. Similar judgements [sic] have been made in Australia and many other countries. That is, the production of pencils in the US in the 1950s depended, to a substantial extent, on conscious planning undertaken 50 years ago.

Quiggin is assuming without evidence that the trees used to produce the pencil in I, Pencil would be absent but for the creation of some government agency. That claim is erroneous.  Nearly 90% of the U.S. timber harvest comes from private lands.

In addtion, the forests of Oregon existed well before the US Forest Service, and a government nationalization of land doesn’t produce the trees already in existence. If Quggin is arguing a government agency was necessary to prevent total deforestation, then the “Tragedy of the Commons” is to blame during westward expansion, not private property rights.

In fact, privately owned tree farms have proved to be very successful at sustaining forests. The American Tree Farm System, a nonprofit organization that has certified millions of private tree farm acres, was created over a decade before I, Pencil was written. Moreover, the Oregon Tree Farm System has successfully achieved Theodore Roosevelt’s goals that Quiggin outlines. Although it appears these nonprofits may accept government money, that would not dispute the effectiveness of private property rights to adequately protect the long-term health of forests.

When individuals profit off trees, there is an enormous incentive for private farms to maintain the forests in the long-term. A sustainable forest creates a sustainable profit with the protection of private property rights that prevent the “Tragedy of the Commons,” the real villain of long-term deforestation.

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Wayne Crews and I have a piece in today’s Sacramento Bee summarizing the main findings of Wayne’s “Ten Thousand Commandments” study. We also point out that regulatory costs are not limited to the $1.75 trillion it takes to comply with them:

The total cost of federal regulation is $1.75 trillion. That’s true in terms of money. But money isn’t everything. Regulation also has opportunity costs. Workers spend millions of man-hours every year filling out forms and following procedures. That time could be spent on other things instead, such as finding ways to lower costs, improve quality and increase worker productivity. When there’s too much regulation, progress and innovation slow down.

There is a second opportunity cost that is often overlooked. Companies don’t sit idly by when regulators propose new rules. They try to influence the process. Most companies, especially larger ones, often favor new regulations in their industries. They will pay lobbyists a lot of money to influence the rules in a favorable way – say, by handicapping a competitor.

Tech:

Sony “rebuilding” PlayStation Network after attack:
“The outage of Sony’s PlayStation Network and Qriocity service, now in its fourth day, looks set to continue after the company said on Sunday that it is “rebuilding” its system to better guard against attacks.”

AT&T starts selling ‘cell tower in a suitcase’:
“For the first time, AT&T is selling small, portable cellular antennas that will allow corporate and government customers to provide their own wireless coverage in remote or disaster-struck areas.”

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