chapter 11

In the next 48 hours, Chrysler is expected to file for bankruptcy because, according to press reports, a significant minority of its creditors object to the Obama administration’s planned takeover in which the government and unions would own a majority stake. The Obama administration hopes to persuade the court to ratify and rubber-stamp its plan.  But the bankruptcy courts should exercise independent judgment instead, as they do in any typical bankruptcy case.

The expected Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing of Chrysler LLC is an action that probably should have happened months ago. It could have spared all involved the chaos of the ”political bankruptcy” we have seen unfold. The process of a judicial bankruptcy will bring a needed check to the Obama administration reorganization plan that heavily favors unions, at the expense of bond and debt holders.

The hedge funds that refused to be strong-armed into the Obama plan should not be blamed for asserting the interests of the investors they represent; investors that could include pension funds that serve middle-class families. The bankruptcy court should be allowed to be impartial and not be pressured to automatically take the plan offered by the Obama team. It should weigh the interests of all involved, using Chapter 11 precedent, and decide accordingly what each party is entitled to, as bankruptcy courts normally do.

The merger of Chrysler and Fiat the government has pushed is pure “industrial policy” of the type that led to stagnation in Japan and other nations where it has been practice. It may not be the most viable choice for Chrysler to specialize in smaller cars. Rather, a merger combination between Chrysler and General Motors with a concentration on larger vehicles such as SUVs may be the best option. This alliance had been discussed for years but was shelved because of concerns it might run afoul of antitrust laws.

The Obama administration should lift any antitrust barriers to effective reorganization — and suspend planned increases in the Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards that would be detrimental to Chrysler and other carmakers – but otherwise stay neutral as to the form the reorganization takes.

The relatively smooth process of recent large Chapter 11 bankruptcies, such as that of mall owner General Growth Properties, shows that far from being “disorderly,” judicial bankruptcies are far more orderly than taxpayer bailouts in unwinding and reorganizing insolvent companies. The judicial bankruptcy process should be given a chance to work in the case of Chrysler and any other companies that follow suit.

See also, my article in the American Spectator comparing the bankruptcy of General Growth Properties to that of the automakers.

On the surface, given the economic turmoil we’ve had, there was nothing that remarkable about the bankruptcy of shopping mall owner General Growth Properties (GGP). Late last week, GGP filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, an action that some had been expecting for months  given its debt of almost $25 billion.

GGP was the second largest mall owner in the country — with properties including Chicago’s Water Tower and the DC area-Tyson’s Gallleria – and filed for what has been described the biggest U.S. real estate bankuptcy ever. Yet the bankruptcy barely made a ripple in the stock market, which was up last Thursday the 16th, the day of its filing. And most of its malls, according to various local press reporties, operated as if nothing had changed.

Yet, in another way, the fact that this bankruptcy has so far gone off so smoothly is itself remarkable. Given the stretched definition of “systemic risk” and firms “too big to fail,” GGP would seem to meet that definition, at least as much as General Motors and Chrysler do. After all, thousands of stores and restaurants are anchored at malls, and if their landlord has cash flow troubles, these businesses and their employees could certainly suffer. For months, there had been talk that the commercial real estate was next on the list to be bailed out.

But perhaps sesnsing the “bailout fatigue” of American taxpayers and the strings attachted to money received from TARP, GGP’s owners and creditors decided to take the road less traveled. Or rather the road most often traveled by failing firms until the federal government opened its spigots last year. They filed for an old-fashioned Chapter 11 bankruptcy. And except for court costs — minimal in comparison to the billion-dollar bailouts – there is no taxpayer money involved.

Because of various raps against bankruptcy rather than bailouts, it’s worth going through the mechanics of the GGP bankruptcy, to show how they disprove them. One argument that has been made against a car company bankruptcy is that in these times of tightened credit, it would be impossible to get debtor-in-possesion, or DIP financing. DIP is necessary to finance a company’s operating costs while the court is reorganizing the company under the Chapter 11 proceedings. Yet GGP shows that large amounts of DIP financing are available — for a price.

 According to the New York Times, “General Growth will pay 12 percent over the London interbank offered rate, a commonly cited reference rate for bank lending.” The DIP loan is coming from Pershing Square Capital Management, the hedge fund run by William Ackman. And that price — though steep — is one that GGP shareholders and creditors see as well worth the price, given that it could facilitate a successful reorganization of the company that would be in everyone’s interest.

Ackman has been most often been noted for betting against companies in the real estate boom — and being spectacularly right.  As I wrote in Reason, Ackman “provided some of the earliest warnings about flaws in mortgage lending, securitization models, and the credit ratings process.” One of the ways Ackman would make his bets was by both shorting the stocks of financial firms and buying the much-derided credit default swaps that pay off in the event of firms’ default. Those swaps paid off handsomely when firms went belly up.

Ackman also bought swaps against GGP, and there has been criticism implying that some creditors pushed the company  into bankruptcy so that the swaps would pay up. Not mentioning Ackman by name,  columnist Daniel Gross writes in Slate about the supposed “scary rise of the empty creditor,” arguing that  ”if a lender or creditor believes it can profit more from a complete failure—i.e., if it has an insurance policy that pays off only in the event of utter devastation—that creditor might be more inclined to push a company toward bankruptcy.” Echoing an earlier assertion by the Financial Times that “CDS holdings were … a factor in the default and filing for Chapter 11 protection” of GGP, Gross claims that “the logic of empty creditors may similarly have been a reason why [GGP] ended up filing for Chapter 11.”

A couple problems with these complaints, in particular if they are directed at Ackman. One is that, according to the SEC filings as as reported by the investor web site SeekingAlpha.com, the GGP swaps Ackman holds don’t appear to be actual credit default swaps. Instead, they are based on “share price performance” of the company’s common stock. So an actual bankruptcy wouldn’t have made as much of  a difference as a low share price.

Second, if Ackman wanted to profit solely from General Growth’s poor performance, he could have simply walked away when the company filed for bankruptcy or the stock tanked. Instead, he is now betting that the company will have a successful reorgnization by lending it money to facilitate an orderly bankruptcy. The loan may have lucrative terms, but Ackman is still taking a risk that the company will fail. He simply hedged his risks with some swaps.

The most important point is that Ackman, with 25 percent of the company’s stock, as well as any other potential holders of  GGP swaps would not have been able to convince the other shareholders and creditors to go along with the bankruptcy unless it offered something beneficial for all parties. What does bankruptcy offer GGP?  What bankruptcy offers all filers: a chance to say “time out” to the creditors while the company is being reorganized. When asked if there was a danger that GGP would have to sell its properties at fire sale prices to rvial firms, Ackman told Bloomberg News, “The probability of … the other mall REITs buying any of General Growth Properties on the cheap is zero. They’re not going to be forced to do anything because they’re in bankruptcy.”

Isn’t it ironic? GM takes billions in bailout money as a preferred alternative to a “disorderly” bankruptcy. Yet it now may end closing its plants for several weeks. Yet not one mall has closed so far after GGP has taken the plunge into bankruptcy. This is in signficant part because the baliout money for the car companies has actually been an impediment to effective restructuring.

As I have stated previously on the auto bailouts, “The prospect of an ever-increasing supply of tax dollars is leading parties with auto industry contracts – unions, bondholders, dealers and others – to play a game of chicken. No one wants to renegotiate a contract when they think the government will come in with more money to cover the losses. And the Obama administration, as with AIG, does not have the power of a bankruptcy court to discharge debt. ”

So kudos to Ackman and the other GGP parties for finding an innovative solution for bankruptcy and restructuring without bailout money from taxpayers. And maybe if the option of bailout money is completely cut off, as it should have been in the first place, a private sector innovator like Ackman will appear to lead an orderly reorganization of the auto industry.

If there’s one provision in the GM/Chrysler bailout that I just don’t get, it’s the suggestion that the automakers must be financially viable by March 31st next year or they will have to repay the loans.

Unless I’m missing something, if you’re not financially viable, repaying $17.4 billion will be just a tad difficult. This will presumably force those automakers into Chapter 11, which is what the bailout was meant to avoid, at least partly to avoid the “ripple effect” that the much more responsible Ford is worried about. In these market conditions, it is hard to see any way that the companies can meet that condition without engaging in some sort of fire sale (which will in turn have ripple effects).

It therefore looks like, rather than some pre-packaged bankruptcy, the Bush administration has handed its successor a pre-packaged crisis. On April Fools’ Day, of all days, President Obama will be forced to extend the loans, provide more funds or otherwise cave to GM/Chrysler/UAW demands.

However you look at it, this is not responsible government. This bailout beggars belief.

(A further post will provide details of what sort of non-financial bailout could help).