Copenhagen climate conference

Bringing on the clowns at Copenhagen

by Fran Smith on December 18, 2009

in Environment, Global Warming, International, Politics as Usual, Sanctimony

I was intrigued with a reference in Wes Pruden’s Washington Times column today that the Copenhagen COP15 delegate from Tuvalu, weeping while pleading for energy restrictions (and money) to keep the tiny Pacific island from sinking into the sea, is really a Ph.D. student in Australia, who lives in New South Wales.  The source for this information is The Australian newspaper, which carried an article about the Tuvaluan representative, Ian Fry, on December 17.  Here’s an excerpt:

But the part-time PhD scholar at the Australian National University actually resides in Queanbeyan, NSW, where he’s not likely to be troubled by rising sea levels because the closest beach at Batemans Bay is a two-hour, 144km drive away. Asked whether he had ever lived in Tuvalu, his wife told The Australian last night she would “rather not comment”.

A career environmentalist who once worked as a Greenpeace political liaison officer, Mr Fry has found his niche in global climate change talks over the past 10 years, representing small Pacific nations and running the climate negotiations for the Association of Small Island States.

What’s also interesting is that Tuvalu is the poster child for rising sea levels caused by global warming, but as this article in Science magazine notes, the sea level around the island has actually been declining for nearly 50 years.

Is there no shame among global warming zealots?

Lots of vituperative comments to Palin’s WaPo op-ed

by Fran Smith on December 10, 2009 · 1 comment

in Culture, Environment, Global Warming, Personal Liberty, Sanctimony

Sarah Palin’s op-ed in the Washington Post yesterday on ClimateGate and the Copenhagen conference has spawned a blizzard of comments from Post readers.  Almost 4,000 comments as of this morning.  Many of them – no friends of free speech — attack the newspaper for publishing Palin’s article at all. Huffington Post sycophants are similarly energized in their hatred for Palin and for free speech.  Their comments on a cross-posting of Palin’s article number 5,750. Here’s an example:

“someone like palin who does not even understand the difference between climate and weather should not be allowed to do the forecast on a local tv news station, let alone write an op-ed piece for a once respected newspaper like the washington post. . . .”

Interesting that instead of commenting on the substance of the article, detractors are more interested in ad hominems.  May sound familiar to skeptics of catastrophic global warming or the “deniers” as they’re often referred to.

Baucus wants border measures in climate bill

by Fran Smith on November 10, 2009

in Energy, Environment, Global Warming, International, Nanny State, Trade

Uh-oh.  Senator Max Baucus (D-Montana) is raising the stakes on a U.S. climate bill by endorsing the idea of some sort of tariff on goods from countries that haven’t taken steps to suppress fossil fuel use.  According to Reuters, Baucus, Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, yesterday said:

“We must push our trading partners to do their part to curb harmful emissions and we must devise a border measure, consistent with our international obligations, to prevent the carbon leakage that would occur if US manufacturing shifts to countries without effective climate change programs.”

Currently the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, chaired by Senator Barbara Boxer, has rushed through its own bill without minority input to try to catch up with the House, which passed its cap-and-trade bill – H.R. 2454 — on June 26, 2009. The House bill contains a border tax adjustment measure, while the Senate bill does not.  At least, yet.  But Baucus’ comments are a strong signal that the Senate bill will also include tariffs or border “adjustments,” i.e., taxes.

This unfortunate idea is gaining greater traction among global warming advocates as a way to maintain U.S. competitiveness for industries, such as steel and cement, that would be facing higher costs if an energy suppression bill to address global warming is passed.  Proponents of “border measures” also see this as a way to curtail so-called leakage of carbon-intensive industries and related jobs to other countries without similar constraints. Of course, the common justification for those who want to hobble their competition is the refrain: “Level the playing field.”  In Washington politics, that usually means bringing your competitors down to your level.  Check out this article for some possible consequences.

These endorsements could portend a carbon tariff push in Copenhagen when world climate pukkas gather on December 7, 2009. Luckily for people in the U.S., it’s not likely that a newly minted global warming bill will be in their pockets.

Climate Policy Imperils China, India

by Marlo Lewis on November 5, 2009 · 2 comments

in Global Warming

Jonathan Pershing, head of the U.S. delegation at the UN climate talks in Barcelona, says China should cut its CO2 emissions 50% by 2050.

Reuters reports:

BARCELONA, Spain, Nov 5 (Reuters) – China should roughly halve its greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 to keep the world on a safe climate path, the head of the U.S. delegation at U.N. climate talks in Barcelona said on Thursday.

Leading industrialised countries say that the world must halve greenhouse gases by 2050 to avoid the worst effects of climate change, and have committed to lead by cutting their own emissions by 80 percent.

China should cut by about 50 percent, leaving space for poorer countries to grow their economies, Jonathan Pershing told Reuters.

“If you put China in there at a 50 percent reduction, if we’re a bit higher, that gives lesser developed countries a bit lower. If they are in that middle band, plus or minus some percentage, that seems about right.”

China would be on course to meet that goal if it repeated its present energy efficiency five-year plan into the future, he added. “They’re doing pretty well,” he said.

As discussed in previous posts, meeting the EU/UN/Al Gore CO2 “stabilization” goal — 450 parts per million by 2050 — would require heroic (suicidal?) sacrifices on the part of developing countries. Stabilization at 450 ppm would require, at a minimum, a 50% reduction in global emissions by 2050. Because most of all the increase in global emissions over the next four decades (indeed, the next 90 years) is projected to come from developing countries, meeting the stabilization target would require developing countries to lower their emissions more than 60% below baseline projections even if industrial countries magically achieve zero net emissions by 2050!

Barring technological breakthroughs (in their nature unpredictable) that dramatically lower the cost and improve the performance of non-emitting energy technologies, the only way developing countries could comply is by restricting their use of energy. Yet developing countries are poor in no small part because they lack access to abundant, affordable energy. The 450 ppm goal is a recipe for “stabilizing” global poverty.

Don’t be fooled by Pershing’s remark that all China needs to do is keep repeating its “five-year” plan. Supposedly, China is already “well on the way” to reducing its energy intensity 20% by 2010. Based on the only data available, Roger Pielke, Jr. finds that China has cut intensity only 7.4% from 2005 to 2008, “meaning that it has a long way to go to reach a 20% target by 2010.” Besides, even if the first five-year emission intensity reduction plan succeeds, it represents the low-hanging fruit. Replicating that achievement every five years would become increasingly costly and difficult.

That a 450 ppm CO2 stabilization target cannot be met unless China slams the brakes on its economy has been clear from basic emissions arithmetic for some time. What’s new is that a U.S. Government official is quantifying, in the context of climate treaty negotiations, what “meaningful participation” by China actually means.

So far, India and China have escaped Kyoto-style energy rationing. This makes their products more competitive in global markets, and pulls capital and jobs away from CO2-regulated economies.  But we’re only two years into the first (2008-2012) Kyoto compliance period. At some point, free riders have to pay up or get off the train.

The EU, Japan, and the United States (if it ratifies Kyoto II) will not accept a permanent arrangement under which they bear all the costs of energy rationing, fork over billions in technology transfers and climate assistance to developing countries, and export more jobs to India and China.

The longer the Kyoto project endures, the greater the pressure India and China will face — in the form of carbon tariffs, for example — to join the club of the carbon-constrained.

If India and China want to protect their right to grow and avert an economically-debilitating era of trade conflict, they should get off the global warming bandwagon as soon as possible. A balanced assessment of the science does not justify alarm. India and China already act on the premise that global warming policy is more dangerous than global warming itself. It’s time for their words to match their deeds.

Nike quits the Chamber. When will the sanctimony end?

by Marlo Lewis on September 30, 2009 · 1 comment

in Global Warming, Sanctimony

Today’s Greenwire (subscription required) reports that Nike, the sports shoe king, is resigning its position on the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Board of Directors. Nike supports cap-and-trade legislation, a national renewable portfolio standard, a moratorium on new coal power plants lacking carbon capture and storage, and EPA regulation of CO2 under the Clean Air Act. The Chamber opposes all of the foregoing.

Although the Greenwire story is not slanted, neither is it particularly informative. The reporter makes no effort to ascertain what bottom line interest might account for Nike’s decision to quit the Chamber, or for the company’s decision to join the Business for Innovative Climate & Energy Policy (BICEP) coalition, a project of Ceres, the Gorethodox investor network.

The vast majority of Nike’s production facilities are in China and other Asian developing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam. (I can’t find exact numbers — Nike appears to be coy about the details.) Nike factories in developing Asia would not be subject to CO2 controls from either Waxman-Markey or EPA regulation under the Clean Air Act.

What’s more, if the G-77 Plus China hang tough at the Copenhagen climate conference, and the successor treaty to the Kyoto Protocol continues to exempt developing countries from legally binding emission limits, then the comparative advantage (lower energy costs) those countries already enjoy under Kyoto will increase, making Nike factories even more profitable to invest in.

Here’s what an honest Nike press release might say: 

Nike believes U.S. policymakers should use law, regulation, and the Copenhagen treaty to hobble domestic firms in favor of the Asian economies where our facilities are located. In contrast, the U.S. Chamber opposes policies that would offshore more U.S. jobs and investment to China and developing Asia. A truly carbon-constrained world would destroy jobs and growth in Asia, too. However, that’s years away, and Nike cares only about its short-term bottom line. Therefore, we are pulling out of the Chamber. 

Instead, Nike tut-tutted about the need for “urgent action” on climate change. When will the sanctimony end?

India’s CO2 emissions to triple by 2030

by Marlo Lewis on September 4, 2009

in Global Warming, International

India and China talk the Al Gore talk of climate Armageddon and the necessity for urgent action — yet their emissions keep going up and they refuse to adopt emission caps or carbon taxes. The world’s two most populous countries with the biggest “emerging” economies act on the premise that global warming policies are more dangerous than global warming itself. It’s time for their words to match their deeds, as I explain today on MasterResource.Org.