Democrats

Democrats want the federal budget to be about $3,730,000,000,000. Republicans want it to be about $3,630,000,000,000. As with many other issues, the difference between the two parties is less than three percent. Even so, it nearly led to a federal government shutdown.

The deal that the two parties recently struck to avoid a government shutdown meets somewhere in the between. It is advertised as cutting $38.5 billion of spending. But on closer inspection, it would actually cut $14.7 billion. That would cut total federal spending by 0.39 percent.

I have a hunch that even those small cuts may not actually happen. This blog post I wrote in 2005 explains why.

The rules of the game in Washington are severely stacked in favor of spending increases. Presidents Bush and Obama grew the federal government by about 100 percent in only a decade with little political pain. And it apparently takes the specter of a government shutdown to reduce spending by 0.39 percent.

If anyone is looking for a reason for fundamental institutional reform, that would be a big one.

The Hill:”Senate fails to advance campaign finance bill

The First Amendment: “Congress shall pass no law… abridging the freedom of speech.”

Good news for anyone who wants to engage in political speech. But how sad that this happened because of politics, not principle.

It was mostly Democrats who favored the DISCLOSE Act. And according to today’s Senate vote, it was only Democrats who favored the bill. But Republicans are no heroes on this issue. Don’t believe their posturing. If the political winds were currently favoring Democrats, Republicans would be working their tails off to pass similar legislation.

The primary effect of campaign finance regulation is to stack the rules of the game in favor of incumbents. Both parties know this. And both parties will seek to use campaign finance regulation to their advantage however they can.

In a new Gallup poll on confidence in institutions, Congress ranked last out of 16 institutions consumers were asked to consider.  Only 11 percent of respondents had confidence in Congress, down 6 points from last year’s poll.  Confidence in the presidency dropped the most this year from last – down a full 15 points to 36 percent.

What I think is more interesting, however, is that the main institutional targets of President Obama’s and the Democratic Congress’ recents attacks and draconian laws gained in confidence in this year’s poll.  The Administration’s demonization of the health care system didn’t seem to resonate with the public.  In this year’s poll, the medical system ranked as number five in overall confidence, up 4 points from last year.

Banks and big business – also the targets of the Administration’s ire, were up one and three points, respectively, in the 2010 poll.

With these kinds of polling results, the Dems are right to be running scared.  Their big “successes” – ramming through an inchoate health “reform” bill and banking legislation that threatens to bury banks and their would-be customers in red tape – don’t sound like they’re going to get a lot of support among their constituents.

From The Hill: Vulnerable Democrats defend support for campaign finance legislation

Campaign finance regulations are an incumbent’s best friend. The incumbent already has name recognition, and a deep network of fundraising contacts. Heck, Congress’ franking privilege allows incumbents to send out de facto campaign messages for free. Challengers have none of those advantages.

It takes a lot of money to buy enough ads to get a challenger’s name recognition anywhere near the incumbent’s. Campaign finance regulations make it harder to raise that money, and harder to put up a fight against established officeholders. No wonder so many incumbents from both parties favor strict campaign finance regulations! It’s good for their job security.

If you’re gay, you can’t donate blood. It’s illegal. The ban was put in place in 1983, during the early days of the HIV/AIDS scare. It may have made some sense in those days, when HIV testing was less than trustworthy. But it sure doesn’t now, with modern screening technology.

Obviously, keeping HIV-positive blood out of circulation is a wise policy goal. But most gay people don’t have HIV/AIDS.  Rather than screening donors for sexual preference, they should be screened for blood-borne diseases. Straight people already are. And it works quite well. Current policies are keeping healthy, willing donors out of the system.

The outdated ban could soon be coming to an end. Sen. John Kerry and 15 of his colleagues, usually more prone to passing regulations than repealing them, are urging the FDA to repeal this one. You can read their letter here.

The one disconcerting thing about the letter is that every single one of the signees is Democratic. Not one Republican joined in. That could be because Sen. Kerry and the others deliberately excluded them for political reasons. But the GOP is famously behind the curve on gay rights issues. So maybe Republicans were asked, and said no. I don’t know.

Republicans should send their own letter supporting Sen. Kerry’s position. Enlarging the pool of eligible blood donors is an unabashed good. It’s a classic gay rights issue. It’s also a health issue. Blood would be more readily available for patients who need it. Economists would add that increasing the supply of blood will lower its price – a good thing in this age of rapidly rising health care costs.

Sunday’s Washington Post features a supposed myth-debunking piece about organized labor that is so misleading that it’s hard to know where to begin driving trucks through the holes in it. A combination of egregious omissions and inaccurate characterizations present a picture so distorted that I cannot let it go unchallenged. Segments of the piece, by Post reporter Alec MacGillis, are indented, with my responses below.

1. Organized labor is in inexorable decline.

Not exactly. Organized labor isn’t so much shrinking as shifting. The proportion of private-sector workers who are union members continues to drop, to 7.2 percent last year from 7.6 percent in 2008. But this decline was offset by the ongoing growth of public-sector unions — 37.4 percent of public employees are now represented by unions. Today, there are more public employees in unions (7.9 million) than private-sector ones (7.4 million).

Even within the private sector, organized labor’s decline isn’t irreversible. Much of it is a result of larger economic forces such as the shrinkage of union-dominated manufacturing industries and the expansion of more transient, service and professional jobs where the workers are more difficult to organize.

But there are growing sectors in which unions are making inroads — low-wage jobs in retail and in health care or elder care, for example. And they would be signing up more workers if the regulatory climate were more favorable. As manufacturing-heavy as the economy was in the early 20th century, it was only when President Franklin Roosevelt pushed through the pro-union reforms of the New Deal that membership surged, tripling from 12 percent of the workforce in 1930 to 36 percent in 1945.

A sure sign of an industry being economically moribund is its having to rely on government to survive, which is exactly what organized labor is doing by relying on public sector membership to keep its numbers up. This is not a “shift,” but a retreat away from the market.

The boost in unionization among low-wage workers is hardly a ray of hope for unions to reestablish themselves in the private sector, since it is nowhere near what’s needed to reverse the trend toward the day when unionization becomes almost exclusively a government employee phenomenon.

As MacGillis notes, it was changes in federal labor law, not market forces, that helped fuel union growth during the mid-20th century. From the way he describes it, the Roosevelt administration and its Congressional allies merely “reformed” labor law to give unions a fair chance. In fact, the biggest such change, the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA, also known as the Wagner Act), was intended, as its own preamble states, to “encourag[e] the practice and procedure of collective bargaining.”

It does so by tightly controlling how employers may communicate with their own employees regarding unionization and by establishing monopoly bargaining, whereby employers must recognize a certified union as the sole representative for their employees.

The NLRA also established closed shops, in which union membership (or paying “agency fees” in lieu of union dues for representation an employee may or may not want) can be a prerequisite for employment. The Taft-Hartley Act of 1947 (which MacGillis calls “anti-union” in item 3 below) allowed states to enact right-to-work laws to ban closed shops. Today, there are 22 right-to-work states, so in 28 states, employees can still be required to pay union dues or their equivalent in order to get or keep a certain job.

Moreover, unions’ rush toward the public sector is hardly an economically neutral event. As he acknowledges in the second “myth” item below, public sector unionization is now wreaking havoc upon state and local government budgets around the country.

So, while organized labor may be economically moribund, it remains politically vibrant.

2. Unions are bad for economic growth.

Economists on the left and the right can debate this one for days. The pro-labor side has a strong argument: The period of highest union penetration, from the 1940s to the ’70s, was also a period of sustained economic growth. The other side counters with examples of unions doing harm to their members and industries: The “jobs bank” that the United Auto Workers maintained for years, paying laid-off workers to do nothing, is a favorite. And labor’s foes like to note that states in the South and the West with “right to work” laws restricting unions have successfully lured companies from the North or from abroad. But at least for now, the most heavily unionized regions — the Northeast, the Midwest, the Northwest and California — still hold most of the country’s wealthiest states and its most dynamic metro areas.

The more pertinent claim against organized labor may be on the public-sector side, where unions put significant pressure on state budgets, particularly with pension obligations. A new study by the Pew Center on the States finds a $1 trillion gap between what the states have promised their workers and what they’ve set aside.

MacGillis presents both sides fairly in this item. However, it’s worth noting the weakness of the pro-unionization argument he cites, which relies on arguing causation from coincidence, in both time and location. Economic growth occurring at the same time as increases in union membership does not prove causation one way or the other. In fact, the years following World War II saw a surge in consumer spending after years of pent-up demand during the war years. That was the first period of robust economic growth after the Wagner Act, so the proposition that the strong economy was resilient and dynamic enough to bear, and account for, the added costs of increased unionization is just as likely, if not more so.

By the same token, prosperity in states with a strong union presence does not prove that it was unionization that helped bring about that economic vibrancy. Unions were hardly crucial in the growth of financial services in New York and San Francisco, or that of information technology in Washington State and Silicon Valley.

MacGillis notes, rightly, the enormous stress that public sector unions have put on state budgets. This is a major problem that could seriously harm the greater economy by fostering an environment of high taxes, poor public services, and future policy uncertainty.

3. Labor laws are not the issue — economics are.
Far from it. Even lawyers who represent employers say the system is badly outdated. There has not been a major change to labor laws since the anti-union Taft-Hartley Act of 1947. With no progress on the legislative side, energies have focused on the five-member National Labor Relations Board, the panel of presidential appointees that rules on election disputes and labor complaints appealed by unions and employers. The NLRB is such a political football that it borders on the dysfunctional. For the past 26 months, only two of its five seats have been filled. This can mean long delays for cases awaiting judgment. While the Labor Department has far fewer union elections to oversee these days — 1,343 last year, down from 7,773 in 1970 — it must process about 25,000 unfair-labor-practice charges per year, including many that arise from nasty jurisdictional disputes between unions.

The two board members, a Democrat and a Republican, have managed to make rulings on 500 or so less-controversial cases, but the weightier disputes have been set aside. Sixty cases have been pending for two years or more, and of them, 24 go back more than four years. And the Supreme Court is considering whether the two-person board is even allowed to have made the rulings that it did.

The New Deal-era NLRA not functioning as it was intended is irrelevant to the significance of economic changes regarding the state of organized labor today. No amount of bureaucratic streamlining is bound to reverse “the shrinkage of union-dominated manufacturing industries and the expansion of more transient, service and professional jobs where the workers are more difficult to organize,” which MacGillis cites.

4. The Employee Free Choice Act would radically reshape the job market.
Not really. While the proposal would bring the biggest change in generations, it would leave some union challenges unaddressed. The bill as written would let workers form a union if a majority of them sign cards in favor of one, without having to hold a secret-ballot election at the workplace. Unions argue that such elections are unfairly influenced by employers. But even before Democrats lost their filibuster-proof Senate majority, they had all but jettisoned that part of the bill — dubbed “card check” by opponents — because it lacked support among conservative Democrats. Instead, the measure would now ease the process by shortening the window before elections, giving employers less time to sway workers, and by increasing the penalties for employer violations, both relatively incremental changes.

Arguably the more consequential part of the bill would be a new requirement: Employers and workers who do not reach a contract within several months after an election would need to submit to an outside mediator. As it now stands, more than a third of unions that win elections never secure a first contract. Employers ignore them, workers are afraid to strike in protest (strikes occur far less often than they used to), and the union eventually dissolves.

The legislation would not address what Wilma Liebman, the Democratic NLRB member, has argued is the unions’ bigger problem. In a speech last week, she said the true challenge is in the economy’s growing reliance on temporary and contingent workers and on undocumented immigrants, two categories that are difficult to organize.

Effectively eliminating secret ballot in organizing elections would expose workers to high-pressure tactics with the secret ballot is specifically intended to avoid. MacGillis cites the union argument that workers can be “unfairly influenced by employers” (without explaining how), but doesn’t acknowledge the very real phenomenon of union pressure on voters to join. Either way, there is no better way for workers to be protected against pressure from either side than the secret ballot.

EFCA’s binding arbitration provision would enjoin a federally appointed arbitrator to impose a contract if a newly unionized company and the union do not reach a contract after a certain time (120 days in EFCA’s current version). Unions have tried to sell this as a guarantee of a first contract. MacGillis repeats this argument, but fails to mention any argument against it, which are quite strong.

First, an appointed arbitrator would have no knowledge of the company’s business, yet have the power to impose a binding contract. Second, binding arbitration would provide an incentive for the union to make maximal demands, in the knowledge that it could get no worse than management’s final offer in arbitration. Third, binding arbitration could impose huge liabilities on a newly unionized companies without the management having a say. One particularly dangerous liability would be the obligation to pay into dangerously underfunded union pension funds.

Finally, EFCA’s increased employer penalty provision would give unions another tool with which to pressure employers, by filing unfair labor practice complaints with the NLRB.

5. Unions have the Democrats in their pocket.

They wish. Despite their diminished numbers, unions still pack a powerful punch in national politics — exit polls show that white, working-class union members in key swing states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan vote for Democrats at far higher rates than white, working-class voters who are not in unions. And unions certainly have a seat at the table now after lacking one during the Bush years. Whereas then-AFL-CIO President John Sweeney was invited to the White House only once — for the pope’s visit in 2008 — Service Employees International Union President Andy Stern is now among the most frequent visitors to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

But what do they have to show for it? Obama has held off on pushing the Employee Free Choice Act. Union leaders were told to wait until health-care reform was done, and now even the compromise labor bill may be doomed with the loss of the 60th Democratic vote in the Senate. Obama’s and the Senate’s preferred funding source for universal health care is a tax on high-cost health plans, opposed by the unions; the White House had agreed to labor-friendly revisions, but they are now in doubt.

And then there is Becker. Obama has indicated that he will not install him in a recess appointment, even though his predecessor, George W. Bush, used recess appointments to install seven of his eight NRLB nominees. The unions are grumbling: If this is how their hard work in 2008 is repaid, don’t expect much from labor’s foot soldiers this fall in Altoona, Akron or Fort Wayne.

Organized labor may not be getting everything on its wish list from the Obama administration and Democrats in Congress, but it’s not for lack of trying by the latter. In fact, events over the past year suggest that Obama and some of his fellow Democrats have pursued union-friendly policies that have proven unpopular among the general public. And Democrats have a good reason to keep trying. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, during the 2008 election cycle, 12 of the top 20 (and six of the top 10) campaign donors were unions, which gave nearly exclusively to Democrats.

Moreover, if personnel is policy, then SEIU, arguably the most powerful union in America today, has been rewarded with administration appointments and access. Patrick Gaspard, who served as national political director for much of Obama’s presidential campaign, was previously vice president for politics and legislation for SEIU Local 1199. He was named White House political director in November 2008. And in February 2009, SEIU treasurer Anna Burger was named to Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board. According to a November review of official visitor logs, SEIU President Andrew Stern had visited the White House 22 times since Obama’s inauguration, making him the most frequent visitor during most of Obama’s first year.

It’s not just SEIU. Vice President Joe Biden’s chief economic adviser, Jared Bernstein, was chief economist at the union-backed Economic Policy Institute before joining the administration. And Obama’s Labor Secretary, Hilda Solis, is about as pro-union as any union boss could want.

One appointment that would have had serious policy implications was that of Craig Becker to the NLRB. A former associate general counsel for SEIU, Becker has stated that employers should have no say in the unionization process. As MacGillis notes, Becker’s nomination failed on a cloture vote. AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka quickly demanded that President Obama recess-appoint Becker. That Obama hasn’t done is unlikely to be due to a lack of desire to see him on the Board — he is, after all, his nominee. Given his mounting political troubles in advancing his agenda, especially his health care plan, Obama may just need to avoid another fight with Republicans.

Furthermore, it’s not like organized labor hasn’t gotten anything. The jobs created by the year-old stimulus package have been mostly in the public sector, where union membership remains heavy. And the first piece of legislation signed by President Obama was the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act of 2009, which, as the Manhattan Institute’s James Copland notes, “gutted statutes of limitation in employment lawsuits.”

Expect the Obama administration and Hill Democrats to push more union-friendly legislation. For example, Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-N.D.) is sponsoring a bill to bail out underfunded union pension plans. Something else to look out for is new versions of EFCA. Having failed to advance it in its current form, union-friendly Democrats have good reason to try to amend the current bill or break it up into parts.

Unions haven’t gotten everything they want, but they’re going to keep trying. Given the unions’ support, many Democrats have good reason to keep helping them.

UPDATE: On February 26, SEIU got another major appointment. President Obama named SEIU chief Andy Stern to the federal deficit commission.

Scott Brown’s decisive victory in the Massachusetts Senate race has upturned the Democrats’ Progressive agenda.  Brown, “the people’s seat” senator, had a resonant message that tapped into the electorate’s disenchantment with ever-increasing government (with the health care proposals figuring strongly), huge deficit spending, and increased taxes to pay for the trillions of dollars in new government programs. Jobs and the economy were an overarching issue.

It was a populist victory that carried many of the themes of the “Tea Party” movement, which, so far, haven’t been promoted by either party.  If the Republicans don’t latch onto those themes with an agenda of their own, they really are the “dumb Party.”

What’s a cause for concern, however, is how the Democrats are likely to embrace people’s fear and anger by taking up their own populist cudgel to even more vigorously attack capitalism, consumer choice, and any and all Big Business entities.

There indeed is fierce popular anger at bank bailouts and big bonuses – Wall Street has become a synonym for greed and arrogance that caused the financial meltdown, with little recognition that government and quasi-government entities like the Federal Reserve and Fannie and Freddie contributed to the financial problems.

Though some banks deserve much of the public disapprobrium because of their mismanagement and sellout on TARP funds, even those banks that were healthy or fought their own way back to solvency are being asked to pick up the tab for their less-responsible brethren. Expect the Democrats to exact more such retribution from banks — in the name of the people.

In addressing the big issues of jobs and the economy, the Democrats will have a hard time spending more money on stimulus packages that seem to evaporate before any jobs are created. But there will probably be an even bigger push for “green jobs.” Democratic leadership may decide that a massive and economically destructive cap-and-trade bill isn’t feasible in this political climate.  They may look to more “green jobs” and “alternative fuels” boondoggles through taxes and fees on fossil fuel industries as a better way to sell the idea of restrictions on and higher costs for energy use. Yet those subsidized jobs themselves are costly, as the Wall Street Journal noted in mid-December 2009 about the 253,000 of direct jobs created:

The 253,000 direct jobs works out to a cost of about $90,000 a head-just for one year. Clean-energy manufacturing jobs are even more expensive to create, costing about $135,000 per job.

It will be difficult to relate the Democrats’ health care proposals to jobs and the economy when the costs are projected by the Congressional Budget Office at $1 trillion in additional federal spending over the next 10 years. But that figure – while astronomical — doesn’t include the states’ mandates, which will cost $25 billion more over 10 years or the unknown costs of the mandates for individuals and employers to buy insurance. Those costs will be paid for by increased yet hidden taxes – and not just on the so-called rich.

Plus, the closed-door negotiations on the bills have resulted in deals that most people consider unfair and outrageous, for instance, Nebraska is the only state that won’t have to pay future unfunded Medicare and Medicaid mandates; Louisiana gets $300 million for agreeing to support the Senate bill; and union members don’t have to pay “Cadillac-plan” taxes on their generous health care plans. These proposals will actually hold back job creation by causing uncertainty among both small and large businesses and thus reluctance to expand jobs. And taxpayers rightly understand that they will bear the increased costs.

In the wake of Scott Brown’s election, whether the Democrats will continue their shenanigans on their health care proposals isn’t yet clear.  Right now, they’re damned if they do and damned if they don’t.

Recently, CEI’s president Fred Smith wrote an article titled “Change we can really believe in,” which sets out a blueprint to stimulate the economy by liberating it.  Fred must have been prescient when he wrote this on January 4 — before the surge for Scott Brown:

This year holds promise for a new start for America. As 2010 begins, we may be teetering on a cliff, but Americans aren’t lemmings. Support for statist policies is dropping, and taxpayer anger is growing. There is a renewed understanding that the limitations on government of the Constitution are the best protections of our liberties. Their restoration should be the primary hopeful change advanced by all friends of liberty.

Today’s quotation of the day from The New York Times daily email:

“I’m a middle-of-the-road kind of guy. I want the Democrats out of my pocket and Republicans out of my bedroom. The one word I would use for what’s going on in Washington is embarrassing.”

RON VAUGHN, who provides health insurance to his 60 employees at Argonaut Wine and Liquor in Denver.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJReAunlOw0 285 234]

For the Democrats still supporting the health care overhaul, the blows just keep coming. As if the financial problems I described in a previous post were not enough to deter this fiscal suicide, the Congressional Budget Office has now said that a plan to offset the massive costs by putting an outside panel in charge of budget-cutting for other government health care programs will amount to savings of only about $2 billion over 10 years — practically negligible in comparison to the final price tag, which is already expected to exceed $1 trillion.  For those who still consider this legislation financially feasible, that is a discount of 0.2%.  Oh boy, I can’t wait to cut out the coupon!

When the Congressional Budget Office announced its cost assessment of the health care bill, Senator Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) called the estimate “wacky” and accused the CBO of omitting the savings he inexplicably expected the plan to reap after full implementation. This new statement from the CBO directly counters that claim and casts even further doubt on both the viability of the bill and the credibility of leading Democrats.

Yet, instead of heeding the advice of their own budget analysts, Democratic lawmakers are still charging forward and losing Blue Dog support in the process.  Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has already acknowledged that the bill will not come to a vote in the Senate until after the recess.  By then, the bill likely will have lost so much support due to increased awareness of what it entails that it will either disappear entirely into obscurity (along with the last of Obama’s invested political capital) or be diluted down into a politically innocuous and much less  economically threatening shell of its former self.

The latter is the safer and more probable option for the administration to choose. Its rush to pass this legislation may be related to its desire to have some major policy accomplishment of which it can boast in time for the 2010 midterm elections, the inevitably disastrous effects of which will not materialize until well afterward.  Obama has a lot riding on this.  Given his rock-star status and his party’s dominance of Congress, Obama will look embarrassingly weak if his prized health care initiative fails to pass.  He and the leaders in Congress must quietly cut away much of the spending from the bill or risk halting their already ebbing momentum.

Senator Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), who compared the prospect of a defeat for Obama on health care to Napoleon’s career-ending battle at Waterloo, may turn out to have been right on the money.  Obama’s victories so far have been enabled by confidence in his personal leadership and still-unfulfilled promises — so if he cannot deliver on the crown jewel of his policy agenda, he will be vulnerable to a catastrophic loss of both the necessary support in Congress and the iconic status that has served him so well until now.