Economics

For those of you who have not seen the Econ Stories production of Hayek vs. Keynes, it is a must see. However, many people who enjoyed the video have been curious about the story behind its production. How was it created? Who first came up with the idea?

Well, the video below is a live rendition of Hayek vs. Keynes and answers many questions that people have.

Personally, what I think is most brilliant about this video is that it hits a young demographic and makes F.A. Hayek’s ideas popular with the masses.You’ll notice that the audience of Keynesian economists are not as impressed as one might think, but I wouldn’t doubt it all started with them being bombarded with Keynes throughout their economic education without ever hearing much of Hayek .

I’m sure you have heard the Leftist mantra before: “The rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer.” In fact, Robert Reich’s newest book rehashes Marx’s Theory of Capital Accumulation, which argues that too much capital is accumulated at “the top” and eventually the bottom doesn’t have enough income to purchase what the top sells. (Of course this is a simplified summary of Marx’s Theory, but that is the general idea).  Some have even argued that this caused the recent recession.

Those who are familiar with Thomas Sowell know that he easily debunked this nonsense by explaining that nobody “distributes wealth” to the top income brackets. In fact, people are constantly moving up and down the statistical brackets, often with age. ( For example, young people tend to be poorer than they are when they get older and develop more skills and earn more in income. )

However, another new development may destroy Reich’s argument without even needing to address what Sowell has discussed. It turns out that:

Two people were found to have filed multiple W-2 forms that made them into multibillionaires, an agency official said yesterday. Those reports threw statistical wage tables out of whack and, in figures released Oct. 15, made it appear that top U.S. earners had seen their pay quintuple in 2009 to an average of $519 million.

The agency yesterday released corrected tables that showed the average incomes of the top earners, in fact, declined 7.7 percent to $84 million each.

This would mean that all the claims that the top X % earned “obscene” incomes while the rest of the Country did poorly, isn’t true. Incomes in fact declined for almost everyone during this recession.

This isn’t something to be happy about. But, it demonstrates that there are lies, damned lies and statistics.

Photo Citation.

As if one needed to be more cynical about politics, The Daily Caller just reported that “President Barack Obama is urging Congress to act quickly on a measure that would provide a $250 payment to seniors.”

The effort comes in response to news that the Social Security Administration, for a second straight year, will not add a cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) to the checks it sends out. Last year, Congress authorized a one-time $250 payment for Social Security recipients.

So despite a federal deficit as far as the eye can see, we’re now going to give Seniors $250 checks?  The very reason why there was no cost-of-living adjustments is because there was no increase in the cost-of-living. Moreover, Seniors fall within a demographic bracket that is much wealthier than younger individuals. Consequently, this is nothing other than a wealth transfer payment from poor young people to older wealthier people. How can that be justified?

Lastly, with an election coming up this November, how else can this proposal be described other than, “Support me and I’ll give you $250.” Can our economic policy get much worse?

Image Credit.

Paul Krugman wrote a head-scratching column Sunday titled, “Hey, Small Spender.”  In the column, Krugman not only argues that President Obama’s stimulus package was too small, but he even claims that Obama and his administration did not create a bigger government. He asserts that people think Obama is a big spender as a result of “a disinformation campaign from the right.”

One might wonder how Krugman manages to argue something that is proven false by simply looking at the massive increase in government spending, and increase in government regulations. (See Wayne Crews’ 10,000 Commandments for a reference on regulations.)

Well, Krugman frames the issue as follows:

Ask yourself: What major new federal programs have started up since Mr. Obama took office? Health care reform, for the most part, hasn’t kicked in yet, so that can’t be it. So are there giant infrastructure projects under way? No. Are there huge new benefits for low-income workers or the poor? No. Where’s all that spending we keep hearing about? It never happened. “

It is difficult to figure out whether to laugh or cry after reading the above quote. According to Krugman, because the healthcare bill hasn’t “kicked in yet,” supporting its passage can’t label someone a supporter of big government. Moreover, the fact that the stimulus was squandered and mismanaged can now be used to make Obama immune from being labeled a big spender. Apparently, only if the stimulus money is spent efficiently like a price-coordinated market (which isn’t possible) can one be labeled a supporter of big government. Lastly, supporting unemployment benefit extensions, or the increase of existing entitlements doesn’t count for Krugman.

To be fair, spending on safety-net programs, mainly unemployment insurance and Medicaid, has risen — because, in case you haven’t noticed, there has been a surge in the number of Americans without jobs and badly in need of help. And there were also substantial outlays to rescue troubled financial institutions, although it appears that the government will get most of its money back. But when people denounce big government, they usually have in mind the creation of big bureaucracies and major new programs. And that just hasn’t taken place. [emphasis added]

So, in the end, Paul Krugman concedes that spending increased because Krugman thought it was necessary. However, any existing bureaucracy that increased its power, like the EPA, does not even register on Krugman’s radar.

As Thomas Sowell mentioned recently, this is a “heads I win, tails you lose” approach to economics.  When the stimulus has demonstrated to be an abject disaster, claim it was because the stimulus was too small.

Welcome to October, the start of a new government fiscal year. 2010 was the year of “jobs created or saved.” Bank and business bailouts may have begun long before this year, but 2010 saw what effects flow from nationalizing big business.

Now that the budget says 2011, what has the government done for the individual this year? Despite hundreds of billions of stimulus dollars flooding the economy, unemployment remains in double digits.

In February Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner called the government’s economic efforts “inadequate,” noting that the administration needed to “fundamentally reshap[e] the government’s program to repair the financial system.”  Geithner, a human Laffer curve of robust tax irresponsibility, is the most egregious bailout proponent remaining in Obama’s cabinet.
Business is not like government.

Geithner’s mentality lends itself well to growing government. Geithner’s mentality would not last a year in business.

Government is comprised of millions of people with billions of priorities. Business reflects a single priority: Maximizing the bottom line.

Groups involved with government cooperate only inasmuch as they can agree. Groups involved with business quickly learn to cooperate at all times, because the moment it costs a business more to keep an employee than to fire him, he will be fired.

Similarly, for a business to hire a new employee, that company’s bottom line must benefit from the hire. If it costs $20,000 to hire a new employee, the business will only hire if it anticipates earning $20,001. If the bottom line cannot support the cost of a new worker, she simply will not be hired.

Funds alone cannot generate jobs. As with any financial interaction, money is only as good as the probability of your being able to use it. When dollar hopefuls are very uncertain about their ability to use money in the future, they save it. Businesses are not like government; they are risk averse.

If the government wants more people to be employed, it should get as far away from the hiring process as possible. Only when a business can assess its finances and capabilities can it make a real determination as to how much a potential new employee is worth.

When government keeps fiddling with the works — flooding business competitors with funds, levying ominous health care costs on certain business sizes, and nationalizing some sectors but not others, businesses have no choice but to freeze.

Market uncertainty makes it impossible for businesses to make decisions. The convoluted health care revolution is convoluted enough on its own to freeze the private sector pipes; add pending financial regulations, taxes, and laws that are indecipherable even to the regulators who write them. Even Nancy Pelosi admits we need to pass the bill, subjecting it to interpretation, before we can “find out what’s in it.”

Just like so much sausage, even once we pass the bill we don’t know where it comes from. To “stimulate” the economy with one dollar, the government must first take it from the people.

Printing new money for economic stimulus is even worse — this deflates the value of each dollar, so prices rise the middle class disintegrates. Printing money was a favorite of the depression-era German government, and led to Germans pushing wheelbarrows full of marks and boiling wallpaper for dinner in the early 1930’s. This hardly fosters job growth or stable politics, though Germany is okay now, I suppose.

Since the Obama administration recognized a recession in early 2009, the government has taken nearly $3 trillion dollars out of the economy and has promised nearly $11 trillion more in government programs. In that time the American economy has shrunk by over nine million jobs.

Government by definition operates at a loss, funded by takings and the future. Businesses do not have that luxury. Government attempted to save the private sector by tapping individuals’ wallets. When that was not enough, government nationalized businesses to tap their savings too.

Until businesses can make reasonable predictions about the future, they will not invest in new hires. The best thing the government can do to help the economy is to get out of the way.

Last week, I had the pleasure of discussing net neutrality with James Boyle, a Duke Law Professor and the co-founder of the Center for the Study of the Public Domain, and Paul Jones, the director of ibiblio, on WUNC’s The State of Things radio program. Our hour-long discussion touched on a number of important tech policy topics, and I highly recommend giving the show a listen (download the MP3 here) if you’re interested in hearing the insights of two very thoughtful scholars and critics of cyber-libertarianism.

I’m a big admirer of Boyle and Jones, who’ve both done a lot of excellent work studying copyright and public domain in the information age. While I don’t share their views on the merits of net neutrality regulation — or, perhaps, of government regulation in general — there’s much common ground between us on many issues, including intellectual property, free speech, and government surveillance.

For folks who don’t want to spend an hour listening to our discussion, I’ve typed up a brief summary of the questions we attempted to tackle in our discussion and the various arguments we raised. My apologies if I’ve mischaracterized any arguments or statements — if you want to know what was actually said, go listen to the whole interview!

  • What role should government play in regulating the Internet? I argue its proper role is to enforce voluntary arrangements (Terms of Service) and, when appropriate, enforce civil judgments against firms that have broken their promises. Boyle, on the other hand, argues that government should enforce not only contracts but also net neutrality rules because last-mile Internet service is a natural monopoly and consumers often don’t understand what they’re getting, which means that socially desirable contracts aren’t likely to emerge. I respond by citing Thomas DiLorenzo’s critique of the natural monopoly hypothesis and pointing out that government has obstructed ISP competition by allocating spectrum inefficiently and imposing excessive costs on wireline ISPs through burdensome rights-of-way and franchising rules.
  • Why did Google retreat on its commitment to net neutrality in joining with Verizon to exempt wireless services from neutrality? Boyle argues it’s because Google realized the future of communications is mobile and believed it needed to compromise with Verizon (America’s biggest wireless carrier). Jones points out that the Google-Verizon proposal isn’t a business agreement, but a compromise designed to address the conflicting interests of various stakeholders. I argue that Google recognized that government discrimination among competing business models and platforms is a greater danger to consumers than provider discrimination, and that innovation truly occurs when ‘walled gardens’ such as the iPhone co-evolve with open platforms like Android — the “Yin and Yang” of innovation, as Bret Swanson puts it). Boyle argues that proprietary platforms and exclusionary deals between content and service providers preclude disruptive innovation and digital generativity. He cites the financial crisis as an example of inadequate regulation resulting in poor outcomes that might have not have occurred had there been greater oversight.
  • Does collusion among large, powerful Internet corporations help or harm consumers and innovation? Jones cites Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations in arguing that, without government regulation, mega-corporations will collude and carve up the marketplace, hindering innovation and progress. I argue that leaving companies free to try to “carve up markets” actually spurs beneficial competitive responses and promotes destructive market entry, even if the process isn’t always pretty. I argue that the forces arrayed against today’s major companies–competitors, consumers, suppliers, downstream partners–make it impossible for any entity or group of entities to engage in any truly abusive practices without suffering harsh punishment.
  • Will entrepreneurs and innovators even be able to get off the ground if corporations have unlimited control over Internet applications and content? I argue that government policies, such as the DMCA’s anti-circumvention provisions, are a major part of the problem because they distort natural market outcomes and prop up bad business models. Boyle agrees that these provisions are seriously problematic, calling DMCA a “lawyers’ full employment act.” He points out that many of the most important innovations of the last couple of decades — Google, Facebook, Twitter, and so forth — came about precisely because of the Internet’s openness and dynamism. I argue that the openness that characterizes the Internet is indeed desirable in many ways, but that voluntary institutions can offer open platforms without being forced to do so by government. I point out that network operators who hinder the value of the content that traverses their pipes do so at their own peril, and that infrastructure and content companies actually have a symbiotic relationship, rather than an adversarial one. Jones argues that because many ISPs are also content companies, they have an incentive to privilege their own content at the expense of competing offerings. I point out that consumer demand for Internet video outlets (i.e. YouTube and Hulu) deters providers from slowing down Internet-delivered content. Boyle argues that the continued existence of the open Internet is crucial in ensuring that the ‘walls’ that enclose walled gardens don’t grow too tall.
  • Shouldn’t we treat the Internet like a public utility — a road on which all can travel? I argue that treating the Internet like a public utility, like we already treat roads, raises the dilemma of the tragedy of the commons. I point out that many private roads already exist today without the ‘tollbooths’ that neutrality advocates fear. Jones points out that the real tragedy is one of unregulated commons which lack adequate rules. Boyle argues that the economics of physical property (scarce goods) cannot readily be mapped to networks and calls the Internet a “comedy of the commons” (borrowing from Carol Rose). I argue that government-run commons have a poor track record, from highways to the wi-fi band, and that the success of network industries requires smart investment and innovation that government isn’t well-equipped to deliver. Boyle argues that not all resources must be owned if they’re to be efficiently utilized, citing the emergence of free trade with India and China in the 1700s and the subsequent collapse of state-chartered trading monopolies. Boyle argues that tomorrow’s “next great thing” may never emerge if the openness of today’s Internet isn’t enshrined in regulation.

My colleague Ryan Radia and I recently sent this letter to The New York Times:

Editor, New York Times:

Catherine Rampell’s September 7 article, “Once a Dynamo, the Tech Sector Is Slow to Hire,” mourns the recent decline in U.S. data processing jobs. She blames much of the decline on the automation of previously tedious tasks.

May we suggest one way to get those jobs back: No more automation. Ban the use of computers for data processing. Imagine how much information flows through today’s global economy in an average day. Computers handle most of the load. That costs millions of jobs.

The effects would reverberate far beyond the tech sector. The paper, pen, and pencil industries would also boom.

Companies are dead-set on doing more with less. True, that creates more jobs in the long run by freeing up resources — and employees — for new ventures. But if only they would consider doing less with more, they could create more data processing jobs.

Ryan Young and Ryan Radia
Competitive Enterprise Institute
Washington, D.C.

National University of La Jolla, CA has a limited number of scholarships available for three online, undergraduate courses that focus on free-market economics and the philosophical foundations of capitalism. These scholarships are being funded by a grant from the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation. The scholarships cover the full tuition for the courses plus the application fee to NU. These courses can be taken from anywhere in the world, as long as one has access to the internet. The courses incorporate live chat sessions in which the professor and students interact in a virtual classroom, much as they would in a traditional classroom. For descriptions of these courses, go to the following links:

ECO 401 – Market Process Economics I

ECO 402 – Market Process Economics II

ECO 430 – Economics and Philosophy

To apply for one or more of these scholarships, send your name, transcripts from your high school or university, and an essay of no more than 750 words discussing why you believe you deserve a scholarship and your future education and career plans to Dr. Brian P. Simpson. He can be contacted at:

Email: bsimpson@nu.edu

Mail: National University
11255 North Torrey Pines Rd.
La Jolla, CA 92037.

Notes: There is no deadline for these scholarships; applications will be accepted until all have been awarded. The next time the courses will run is in the spring of 2011 To receive the scholarship you will have to apply to National University and enroll in the course(s). If you have any questions, please contact Dr. Simpson.

Telling the truth to one’s superiors is hard. Especially when the stakes are high. Christina Romer comes to mind. Brilliant economist. She’s done excellent work on the role of monetary policy during the Great Depression.

A partisan Democrat, she was summoned to Washington soon after President Obama’s election to advise him. All of a sudden she endorsed the Bush-Obama views on stimulus. This is a 180 degree turn from her previous views. Romer’s own academic research shows that fiscal stimulus’ effects are too small to do measurable good.

Romer the economist believes that most business cycles have monetary causes. Not fiscal. Monetary. Romer the economist had been very consistent in expressing that view. But that view changed as soon as she arrived in Washington and Romer the economist transformed into Romer the political advisor. Suspicious.

This is not a new phenomenon. Politicians from both parties have been using economists for as long as economists have let themselves be so used. Politicians love the air of legitimacy that pointy-headed academics can give to their proposals. And economists love the sudden rush of attention and name recognition — and the professional prestige that will long outlast the current administration. They are happy to sell out. Or is it buying in?

That thought was sparked by reading about F.A. Hayek mourning the death of some of his colleagues’ integrity back during the Reagan years:

“You can either be an economist or a policy advisor.

I have seen in some of my closest friends… how a few years in government corrupted them intellectually and made them unable to think straight.”

-Cato Policy Report, Vol. 5, No. 2, February 1983.

Are economists ruining economics? Over at The American Spectator, I say why that may well be be the case. Key points:

  • Economists can’t even predict whether the stock market will go up or down tomorrow. Yet many economists tell everyone who will listen that they know how to solve the financial crisis and dig out of a near-global recession. No wonder people aren’t taking them as seriously as they used to.
  • Economics isn’t the problem. The economic way of thinking is as powerful a tool as any for understanding the world around us. But it has its limits. Too many economists have pretended away those limits out of hubris, or for political reasons.
  • Any economist saying he understands global business cycles when he can’t even understand the pencil poking out of his breast pocket is a charlatan. But the discipline he dishonors is as beautiful as poetry. Interested readers should take a look at Leonard Read’s classic short essay, “I, Pencil,” as a case in point.