pandemic panic

The WHO has suddenly gone from a cackling Chicken Little crying “The Sky is Falling!” to squealing like a stuck pig, in response to charges (such as I’ve been making since day one) that it fabricated a pandemic. “The world is going through a real pandemic. The description of it as a fake is wrong and irresponsible,” the agency claims on its website.

A WHO spokesman declined to spell out whom the World Health Organization was responding to in its statement, saying merely that “this applies to anyone who believes it is not a real pandemic.”

But as I’ve previously noted, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, described as a “human rights watchdog” recently recommended that the European Union investigate WHO’s swine flu pandemic declaration to see if the health agency acted under undue influence. Indeed, the chairman of its influential health committee, who is an epidemiologist, has referred to what he calls the “false pandemic” as “one of the greatest medicine scandals of the century.”

To be sure, swine flu has proved to be vastly milder than ordinary seasonal flu. And in fact we knew that (and I wrote about it) before the WHO ever made its pandemic declaration. But spokesman Gregory Hartl told the AP this was irrelevant, because “A pandemic has nothing to do with severity or number of deaths,” rather it just means a global spread of a disease.”

But as I’ve written, that’s only because the WHO changed the definition of “flu pandemic.” “A previous official definition (and widely used unofficial one),” I noted, “required ‘simultaneous epidemics worldwide with enormous numbers of deaths and illness.’ Severity – that is, the number – is crucial, because seasonal flu always causes worldwide simultaneous epidemics.

But [the definition] promulgated in April just days before the announcement of the swine flu outbreak, simply eliminated severity as a factor. They’re saying “We weren’t caught with our hands in the cookie jar because we labeled those Oreos ‘rocks.’”

Why? The initial reason is that this is the same WHO that for five years screamed that the sky was falling over avian flu – again even as people like me said it was nonsense. So when swine flu came along, they seized the opportunity to scratch out “avian” and insert “swine.” Add to that the obvious incentives for budget-enhancing and power grabbing. But bizarrely enough, the WHO even saw the chance for economic and social engineering.

In a September speech, WHO Director-General Chan said “ministers of health” should take advantage of the “devastating impact” swine flu will have on poorer nations to tell “heads of state and ministers of finance, tourism and trade” that:

  • The belief that “living conditions and health status of the poor would somehow automatically improve as countries modernized, liberalized their trade and improved their economies” is false. Wealth doesn’t equal health.
  • “Changes in the functioning of the global economy” are needed to “distribute wealth on the basis of” values “like community, solidarity, equity and social justice.”
  • “The international policies and systems that govern financial markets, economies, commerce, trade and foreign affairs have not operated with fairness as an explicit policy objective.”

This is no longer a health agency, it views its function as agit-prop. It’s time to start over with people who see disease as something to combat, not to exploit.

In response to my Philadelphia Inquirer piece “Swine Flu Epidemic Ends with a Whimper,” predictably public health community members have squealed that the only reason the disease proved so mild is because of their own Herculean efforts. I saw the same thing with heterosexual AIDS and SARS. So it was that Steven J. Barrer, M.D. wrote to the newspaper:

Michael Fumento’s assertion that the swine flu epidemic predicted for this flu season was a medical scandal ignores the enormous effort of the country’s public-health sector to mitigate the potential seriousness of this disease.

Vaccine production was accelerated, public education was aggressive, and awareness was heightened worldwide. Every physician I know made an effort to educate patients. Fumento also belittles simple efforts such as hand sanitizer, but that, and frequent hand-washing, muffling sneezes in your arm rather than hand, and minimizing casual physical contact, are widely credited with reducing the spread of contagious disease.

They are among the efforts hospitals are using, successfully, to reduce their infection rates.

Diseases don’t go away. We just get better at dealing with them. I consider the mildness of this flu season a stunning public-health success.

Yet as my piece noted the epidemic peaked in mid-October, before anybody was vaccinated. It also observed that Australia and New Zealand had remarkably mild epidemics that ended before any vaccine was available.

Hand sanitizer and handwashing appears to have no impact on the spread of flu, as this article discusses. I found a recent medical journal article claiming to show that it does help, but when you actually look at their data you see they provided good evidence that it does not. If that’s the best they can do, it tells you something.

Handwashing was basically thrown at the public as a talisman and because, lacking a vaccine, the public health community and especially the CDC felt it had to offer something for the public to do, even if it was worthless. (Also, handwashing does protect against colds and food poisoning.)

In light of this, it’s hard to see how mealy-mouthed terms like “aggressiveness” and “awareness” played any role. The simple fact, as I took great pains to note, is that swine flu has a vastly milder impact on the immune system than seasonal flu. I’ve even explained why, that we’ve been exposed to H1N1 viruses as part of the seasonal flu since 1997. That also explains why children are disproportionately affected. Where did I first write this? In the pages of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

So that’s it. End of ball game. The WHO knew the score when it declared its pandemic. And doctors like Barrer could have known this because they had access to the same medical literature that I had access to in which fatality rates were compared – and he had access to my previous Philly Inquirer piece that also discussed these rates. I did Barrer’s research for him.

Finally, diseases obviously do just go away. Every year, in countries with or with flu vaccine, in times before vaccines existed, influenza has struck, crested, and then faded away. What did medical science do to make the Spanish flu disappear in 1919?

Public health has done many wonderful things in this country. How much do you worry about smallpox, malaria, tuberculosis, yellow fever, or any number of other diseases that used to sweep through this country periodically like a scythe? But the swine flu hoax is a serious black eye – as was hetero AIDS, SARS, and most recently avian flu – and no amount of wriggling and rationalization will change that.

Hidden within the latest edition of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s FluView was this sentence: “The proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza was below the epidemic threshold.”

That’s right: The great American swine flu epidemic – which led to two proclaimed national emergencies and thousands of spooky news stories – has ended with a whimper.

Read about it in my new Philadelphia Inquirer article.

Inevitably when pandemic doom fails to pan out, whether it be heterosexual AIDS, SARS, avian flu, or anything else the public health establishment that panicked everyone will claim that the only reason their predictions didn’t prevail was fast action on their part. So it was inevitable with swine flu, as we’re told in an article with the sub-headline: “If You Warn of An H1N1 Epidemic But Stop It, Do You Get Credit?”

Professor Robert Field of the Drexel University School of Public Health tells ABC News online that his poor fellows were, as the piece put it, “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.” According to the story, with the subtitle of “Public health officials faced a tough choice in May and June,” “to some extent, we may be seeing a milder epidemic than we feared because of the vaccine and other measures people are taking” says Field.

Pouring on the unmitigated gall, he added: “It’s so easy to be a victim of your own success.”

As they say in The Valley, “Gag me with a spoon!” As I’ve written, the epidemic here peaked in mid-October. Nobody had vaccine immunity in this country then. Nobody. Australia and New Zealand had incredibly mild flu seasons even though almost all of the flu was of the H1N1 swine variety and there was no vaccine even available until the seasons ended. Even now, relatively few Americans have gotten the shot and according to news accounts they’re not going to. More and more are claiming they’ve been bamboozled.

Moreover, there were people in May and June who relayed evidence that swine flu was proving to be extremely mild. Well, there was one person at least. Me.

My first published article on the subject, with the telling title “The Price of a Porcine Panic,” appeared June 1. I said it would ridiculous for the WHO to declare a pandemic, and as soon as it did I wrote why it had been ridiculous. It was obviously milder than seasonal flu, when heretofore flu pandemics were defined by extreme severity.

Later on, as the data, came in, I documented how vastly milder swine flu was. This was before the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology made its incredible prediction of 30,000 to 90,000 deaths.

No, the public health establishment bungled at best and lied at worst. I’ve written 14 articles at countless blogs about it. Don’t let them off the hook this time.

These things just keep getting briefer and briefer. Infections down, deaths down to only 14, states with widespread activity: just one.

Updating you on an earlier blog, the chairman of the influential health committee of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe has asked the body to investigate what he calls the WHO’s “false pandemic.” An epidemiologist no less, he calls it “one of the greatest medicine scandals of the century.”

You heard it here first, folks!

The Big Scare of 2009 is over, folks. The U.S. swine flu epidemic has ended.

“The proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) was below the epidemic threshold,” according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website Fluview and this chart shows it.

New infections continued to drop this week to only 306 reported by CDC-monitored labs, compared to 1,370 just three weeks before and 11,470 at the height of the epidemic. That’s a plummet of over 97% from the height. Deaths and hospitalizations have plummeted to merely 20 and 313 respectively, compared to 85 and 982 just a week earlier and compared to 189 and 4,970 at the peak in October.
Remember that according to CDC estimates, about 257 Americans die of seasonal flu per day during flu season. Mind you, the swine flu deaths are actual while the seasonal flu ones are estimates so it’s not a completely apples-to-apples comparison.

Only 7 states still report widespread activity, down from 11 last week. The American College Health Association did not report new numbers this week, presumably because of the Christmas holiday.

Repeat, the swine flu epidemic is over.

So where do we go from here? No, unfortunately not to zero. Instead we’re at what’s called an “endemic” level. We can expect infections, hospitalizations, and deaths to continue at something the same rate as this last week until the end of flu season in April.

Judging by what we’ve seen so far in the U.S. and the experiences in New Zealand and Australia, we are in for an extremely mild flu season overall. That’s because swine flu is more contagious than the far deadlier seasonal flu, essentially muscling it aside. People inoculated with swine flu infection don’t get the seasonal flu.

So while you may recall all those “excess” deaths we were supposed to be getting from swine flu (30,000 to 90,000 according to the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology and “89,000 to 207,000″ according to flu book author John Barry, we will actually get far fewer flu deaths overall both worldwide and in the U.S. because of swine flu.

While the media are finally beginning to admit that the World Health Organization’s swine flu “pandemic,” made possible only by completely redefining the definition, may be the mildest in history, they are not willing to admit that we will actually have fewer flu deaths internationally because of this alleged pandemic.

Yes, folks, the WHO and the media really did pull a fast one on us.

New infections continued to drop, down this week to only 391 reported by CDC-monitored labs, compared to 1,370 just two weeks before and 11,470 at the height of the epidemic. So that’s a plummet of over 96% from the height. Deaths and hospitalizations are less than half those of last week, and while formerly the CDC refrained from releasing exact numbers it’s now doing so. So the exact number of deaths for last week is 56.

Remember that according to CDC estimates, about 257 Americans die of seasonal flu per day during flu season. Of course, the swine flu deaths are actual while the seasonal flu ones are estimates so it’s not a completely apples-to-apples comparison.

Only 11 states still report widespread activity, down slightly from 14 last weeks.

Finally, cases do continue to come in at above the epidemic threshold nationally. On college campuses it’s a different picture, though. College cases of CDC-defined “influenza-like illness” are definitely at an endemic level, having dropped all the way down to 4.1 cases per 10,000 slightly up to 5.2 and then slightly down to 3.4 They should stay more or less in that range for the rest of the flu season with perhaps higher cases coming in February at the peak of the normal seasonal flu season. Colleges are still reporting only three deaths out of more than 87,000 cases.

No, swine flu isn’t doing much this week. And that’s its future. It’s just plain lazy, happy to roll around in the mud while infecting impressive numbers of people but killing very few. Too bad it can’t kill the reputations of the doomsayers who declared it a “pandemic” and compared it to the horrible Spanish flu of 1918-1919.

New infections are way down this week to only about 480 reported by CDC-monitored labs, compared to 1,370 just the week before and 11,470 at the height of the epidemic. So that’s a drop of 65% in one week and a plummet of 96% from the height. Deaths are the same as last week at what appear to be about 70 (you can only eyeball the bar graph, the CDC doesn’t release exact figures), while hospitalizations appear to have been cut by about half. Remember that according to CDC estimates, about 257 Americans die of seasonal flu per day during flu season – which is what we’re in. Of course, the bar graphs show counted deaths versus estimated deaths so it’s not a completely apples-to-apples comparison.

Only 14 states still report widespread activity, although expect to see that go up again shortly as we’re about to enter the time of year when seasonal flu normally begins to hit hard. Finally, cases do continue to come in at above the epidemic threshold. I predicted last week that we might go endemic this week but not yet.

The American College Health Association’s latest weekly survey of CDC-defined “influenza-like illness” shows college campus cases are actually up 27% from the week before, but that’s from a low 4.1 cases per 10,000 students to 5.2. This would seem to indicate that the epidemic on campuses has now ended and that we’ve entered the endemic stage where we can expect numbers like these probably into March. Cumulatively, out of about 87,000 cases reported there have been only three deaths. There have probably been more deaths from goldfish swallowings at fraternity initiations.

The CDC also released a new estimate, that 50 million Americans have been infected, with more than 200,000 hospitalizations nearly 10,000 deaths. That’s just one death per 5,000 cases, yet as I’ve pointed out, that’s probably high considering that France’s estimate is one per 48,000 infections while Japan’s is one per 140,000. Either our health care system really is as bad as some claim or the CDC is playing fast and loose with the figures.

In any case, the CDC estimates that for seasonal flu it’s a death rate ranging from 417 – 1,667 so any way you look at it swine flu is vastly milder. And all of those 50 million Americans have essentially been inoculated against the seasonal flu. We’re in for a mild flu season, indeed. The only question is whether they CDC will ultimately admit it.

“Experts predict flu pandemic could be mildest on record” declares the Washington Post headline. Unless, that is, you use the old definition of pandemic before the World Health Organization made it so that severity no longer counts. In that case, this would be called not a “pandemic” but “an extremely mild flu strain.

Another shocking revelation? It turns out the Presidential Council of Advisors on Science and Technology “plausible scenario” of swine flu deaths wasn’t all that plausible. Rather than 30,000 – 90,000 Americans dead, a new study by Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch and others calculates “the virus might directly cause between 6,000 and 45,000 deaths by the end of the winter, with the final toll probably falling somewhere between 10,000 and 15,000.”

Insofar as according to the CDC’s estimate we already had about 4,000 deaths by mid-October, that means there may not be that many more fatalities. And mind you, those are not net deaths. In other words, it doesn’t take into account the protective effect we’ve seen in Australia and New Zealand whereby people are inoculated by the mild swine flu so they don’t die from the vastly more severe seasonal flu. In other words, expect a final toll from flu overall to be fewer cases this year – judging from the aforementioned cases far fewer.

Lipsitch, not incidentally, helped come up with that notorious 30,000 – 90,000 number.”Those were the best estimates we could make at the time based on the data available at the time,” Lipsitch told the Post. Really? Then how was non-epidemiologist Michael Fumento able to immediately show the figure was utterly absurd? Am I some sort of Nostradamus who prefers debunking government studies to making a killing at the race track. Or was the PCAST report clearly nonsense from the outset, designed not to inform but to panic?

The folks who dubbed the swine flu piglet a pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO), just won’t let up.

“It is too early to say whether there has yet been a peak in infections in the northern hemisphere,” Reuters paraphrased the WHO as saying, “and it will be some weeks before there is a downward trend in the numbers of those catching the virus.”

Wrong across the board for both Canada and the U.S.

In the U.S., flu deaths and hospitalizations have declined for the third straight week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Regarding Canada specifically, the WHO claims “influenza activity remains similar but [the] number of hospitalizations and deaths is increasing.” But Health Canada’s FluWatch website, updated weekly, begs to differ.

Yes, all indicators have been dropping in Canada, as well. Just what part of “all” doesn’t the WHO understand? Read more in my National Post article.