politics

Hillary Clinton, March 10, 2009: “I really consider [Egyptian] President and Mrs. Mubarak to be friends of my family. So I hope to see him often here in Egypt and in the United States.”

If that seems shocking, consider it a bitter reminder that a great deal of politics exists precisely to protect social order already in place. Consider how entrenchment operates, and how difficult it is to change direction, especially procedural direction.

Consider the fact that President Mubarak revealed in yesterday’s speech that he intends to stay in office until September — ostensibly as a “figurehead” to ensure that everything “goes smoothly” when the government changes hands.

Consider the fact that when Honduran President Zelaya dug in his heels and refused to leave the Honduran office when his term expired under that country’s constitution, and when his countrymen ousted him per the terms of the Constitution under which they had elected him, much of the world, including American President Obama, jumped to call it a “coup.”

Consider how unwilling much of America is to end Social Security even when we know the numbers don’t add up. The system is entrenched and that’s what we know.

What makes a government work is people’s faith that it will work. If people believe their government to be untrustworthy they will seek extralegal remedies and self-help. Faith in government keeps the system ticking even when the government misbehaves.

The Clintons and the Mubaraks are friends. What these two families share in common overshadows their differences enough that they are friends.

Politics is a country club. The purpose of an energetic public — and particularly of a strong fourth estate — is to keep the country club as small and as responsive as possible.

So much for the democratic process. Politicians like to think that voters listen for what’s important to them, move with their issues and, in a worst case scenario, vote with their feet.

When it comes to a word barricade, like the speech that launched a thousand sips this week? We just hear what’s strange.

New York magazine ran a word cloud of Obama’s actual State of the Union speech alongside the word cloud from what viewers remembered hearing.

Here’s the cloud for Obama’s actual speech — text size corresponds to the number of times a word was used:

All America Heard Last Night: ‘Salmon’

Those who believe in a healthy democratic process imagine that what viewers hear will skew towards our issues, but will roughly mimic the word proportions Obama actually used. Right?

Wrong. NPR asked listeners what they remember hearing. Here’s that word cloud:

word cloud

All we heard was “salmon.”

You’d think a population so disenchanted with the issues would vote with their feet.

Turns out we’re just thinking:

Fin.

Image credit: Robert Couse-Baker’s flickr photostream.

Have a listen here.

Myron Ebell, director of CEI’s Center for Energy and Environment, talks about the 2010 midterm election, what will happen in the lame-duck session, and the implications of two years of divided government. He also notes that members who supported policies such as cap-and-trade and the health care bill were walloped — a good sign going forward.

Some Net gamblers are lamenting the indictment of California State Senator Roderick Wright (D-Inglewood) who was indicted by a grand jury for alleged voter fraud. Wright is seen as a proponent of online gambling in California because of the bill he introduced earlier this year which would legalize online gambling in a limited form in California. If convicted of voter fraud, the chances of his bill passing are slim to none. Perhaps online gamblers in California shouldn’t be too upset.

As I wrote in June, Wright’s plans for bringing Internet gambling to California aren’t exactly ideal…to put it mildly. Actually, what I said was that Wright’s SB 1485, while apparently legalizing some online gambling, would actually have the effect of criminalizing all forms of Internet gambling except for the three state-authorized online casinos.

Sen. Rod Wright introduced SB 1485, a bill that supposedly legalizes Internet gambling for residents. What it would actually do is legalize gambling only at the three online platforms and criminalize Internet poker played anywhere else online. Currently, there are no federal laws that make online poker games a crime and the DOJ has never prosecuted individual players associated with the activity. California makes 11 names games illegal to play online, but poker is not one of them. Thus, in CA, poker is not consider an unlawful Internet gambling activity at the moment. But if a law is passed that sanctions only three online providers, chosen by the state, as SB 1485 does, then playing poker online anywhere else will be a crime. The state’s DOJ will be allowed to arrest any individual caught playing poker online at a non-sanctioned site.

Currently, California law makes 11 named games illegal to play online or any game where the operator takes a rake (a cut of the money won in each hand). Thus, online poker in the state is legal at the moment.

While some might argue that legalizing online gambling in this less than desirable form is still a step in the right direction, but is it? If Net gambling was banned throughout the United States, including California, then perhaps it would be a step forward. But as U.S. law and California law currently exist, Internet gambling is not illegal. There are currently 11 named games illegal online in California; poker is not one of those named games, thus it is technically legal in the state.

The supposed purpose of Wright’s bill is bring online gambling out of the black market, earn tax revenue for the state, and to protect consumers. While amendments will be considered, as it is now — restricted to the max — the bill won’t accomplish any of its goals.

1. It won’t add protections for consumers:

The text of the bill itself notes that millions of Californians gamble online for money. Criminalizing all but three sites will not stop players from visiting the platforms they know and like. Those online gamblers will have no protections because they will be breaking California law.

2. It pushes online gambling into the shadows:

As mentioned above, players will continue to frequent unsanctioned gambling sites, only they’ll now be criminals. If Senator Wright and any other politician talking about Internet gambling really wants to protect players, they should let all sites be legal — allowing players recourse if they’re ripped off. If, however, the state wishes to put its seal of approval on any of the platforms, that might make some new gamblers feel more comfortable about playing at those designated sites.

Whether Wright is found guilty or not, his proposal ought to be mucked.

Such limited legalization is an all around bad bet.

Mickey Edwards, former congressman from Oklahoma and guest lecturer at the Harvard School of Government, has written an interesting blog on the case for business leaders moving into politics. To Edwards, operational skills acquired in the private world are not easily translated to the political world:

I do have a problem, however, with the continued promotion of business success as a qualifier for public office. Success in the market is not an automatic disqualifier for public service, but it is a far different undertaking with different purposes and different values.

On this point, Edwards is absolutely correct, but I disagree with his conclusion that:

The business of business is business and the goal of business is to earn a profit in the provision of goods and services.

The goal of business is not merely to profit, but to create value for its shareholders. A firm must balance short and long term goals to produce wealth in both equity appreciation and dividends. How this is achieved depends on the interests of the shareholders. More importantly, the goal is not “profits” but “sustainable profits.” Firms that invest in productivity and new product development do so because they recognize that they live in the Schumpeterian world of creative destruction. Nothing they’re doing today will remain profitable in a decade. The firms who fail to acknowledge this fact do not survive, witnessed in the high turnover of the Fortune 500. The simple profit motive is a short-term, unsustainable notion of business practices.

To be sustainable, corporations must develop and maintain a good reputation with their customers, their employees, their suppliers, their shareholders, and any other group with whom they are economically-linked. The views of these groups can (and do) affect the ability of the firm to remain profitable over time. Moreover, a good reputation is hard to acquire, easy to lose. Considering these motivations, businesses are far more “political” than Edwards recognizes.

Business, however, is not guided by the benevolence Edwards attributes government:

The business of government is service- well managed, one hopes, and not wasteful, but never at a profit. There is no such thing as government money. Governments have no money; they have only what they take from their citizens, either in taxes or by inflation. And if government accrues profit, it can only have done so by taxing too much or eroding the value of the citizens’ income and savings — in either case doing harm, not good, to the people who have created it for the advantages such a common effort is presumed to bestow.

As a former congressman, Edwards certainly knows the appetite of government is infinite. Surplus revenues are never rebated to the taxpayers but spent without oversight on marginal projects. Increased cost of living allowances, earlier retirement programs, pork barrel spending to benefit local special interests. If government actually sought to advance the “public good”, the record would be far different.

Businesses seek maximum efficiency; governments seek sufficient efficiency. We might well save a considerable amount of money by delegating our national security to mercenary armies drawn from other countries (as opposed to keeping a high-cost standing army and paying U.S. wages to private combat zone contractors), thus erasing the need to maintain a perpetual and costly military infrastructure. We could assign the processing of Social Security checks and welfare payments to low-wage workers in Madras or Oaxaca. State governments could close welfare offices and require that all transactions with government be conducted electronically, with no recourse to potentially sympathetic human beings. These are choices governments make reluctantly and businesses make routinely.

This understates the problem. The concept of efficiency requires a metric. For business, it’s “sustainable profitability” whereas government is a grab bag of special programs, each administered by a siloed agency with a “mission” but no responsibility for the general public good.

Business cannot make utopian promises as government frequently does- social security, universal health care, generous cost-of-living increases, a cure for cancer, energy independence, zero pollution. And that lack of a metric can lead nations-and certainly firms- to bankruptcy. The plights of Greece and Illinois, to mention but two, are examples of the need for the “sustainability” virtue that business can offer to politics.

Even agencies with a clear mission- say the Department of Defense – are hindered by the political process and the 435 congressional districts continually second guessing their actions.

Yet, he is right. Those who’ve entered government from business have no great track record. Mitt Romney created a non-sustainable “universal” health care plan in Massachusetts allowing Obama his success at an even less sutainable plan at the federal level. Business doesn’t understand that the competitive forces that disciplined him in the private world are less present and much weaker in politics. Edwards argues that political leaders should ensure that government doesn’t impede profit-making unduly. But they do – and former business leaders freed of the sustainability restraints that made them successful in the private world may exacerbate the problems already extant.

So, in the end, I do find points of agreement with Edwards. The key role of a businessman turned politico would be to reform the institutions – the laws, the regulations, the legal structure – to remove all possible impediments to economic growth. Too few business leaders have ever sought to push for that role in the private sphere when the benefits would have been direct and immediate. Why should we expect them to do so in a world where the benefits would be privatized, the costs political?

The lede to this Denver Post article says it all:

RIDGWAY — Residents of this Old West- meets-New Age town can be fined if their fences are too high, they have too many chickens, their dogs aren’t on leashes or their weeds are out of control.

Tom Hennessy would like to add not voting to that list.

There are three things wrong with Mr. Hennessy’s proposed regulation. One is that mandatory voting is a violation of personal freedom. To vote or not is an important choice that people make for themselves. It is not Mr. Hennessy’s place to make that decision for others. Many countries have tried mandatory voting over the years, most notably the Soviet Union.

The second thing wrong with mandatory voting is that it violates freedom of speech. Mr. Hennessy is aware that compelled speech is just as unconstitutional as censored speech. That’s why he proposes a “none of the above” option on ballots. But some people are sending a deliberate message when they choose not to vote. Mr. Hennessy would fine them for sending that message.

The third point is that, maybe, some people shouldn’t vote. If I step into a voting booth not knowing a thing about the candidates or the issues, I am essentially choosing at random. And choosing wrong means voting against everything I stand for.

Even worse, human beings have built-in cognitive biases that affect their voting habits. Economist Bryan Caplan’s book The Myth of the Rational Voter identifies anti-foreign bias, anti-market bias, make-work bias, and pessimistic bias, for starters.

Even relatively informed voters fall prey to these biases. They vote accordingly. The difference of opinion between economists and the general public on economic issues is startling. Nobody argues relativity with a physicist thinking they’ll win. But voters from both parties argue against the laws of economics every election, often in error but never in doubt.

Despite its flaws, democracy has worked tolerably well in this country for a long time. Perhaps the best part of our particular democracy is that people are free to choose their level of engagement with it. That should be your choice. Not Tom Hennessy’s.

(Full disclosure: CEI takes no stance on whether to vote, or for whom. Neither do I. I personally have not voted since 2002, but seriously consider it every year.)

Almost like answering Henry Kissinger’s famous question–Who do I call if I want to talk to Europe?–the 27 states of the EU have selected the top two figures of their superstate. Mr. Kissinger can now dial Herman Van Rompuy or Catherine Ashton.

Tony Blair, the ambitious British ex-prime minister, was the first one on the list of candidates for the EU presidency. But Germany and France didn’t want a strong and ambitious politician to be a head of the Union, and thus be the decision-maker. Even as Europe was in the process of ratifying the Lisbon treaty, no one really wanted to lose their national power.

And that is how Belgian Prime Minister Van Rompuy became the first EU president and EU Trade Commissioner Ashton became the new foreign relations chief.

Van Rompuy was a compromise figure during the 2007-2008 Belgian political crisis. Unable to form a government, Belgium called elections for the second time. Elections likely would have been called a third time if not for Van Rompuy, who was suggested as an alternative, moderate figure to head a joint government.

Ashton did a decent job as a head of the EU’s Directorate-General for Trade. The impression I received from meeting her during her spring 2009 visit to the U.S. was that she would have implemented sounder trade policies if she were not constrained by political duties. But if Ashton could not stand up for her ideas as trade commissioner, her prospects as the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy do not appear great.

More and more, it looks like much ado about nothing. The Lisbon treaty was ratified by all 27 states, the EU president and foreign relations chief have been elected, but it is unlikely that this will bring real change to the European Superstate’s policies.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJReAunlOw0 285 234]

I am shocked — shocked — that $6 million of stimulus money went to a company accused of “overbilling, bribery of union officials and other alleged improprieties on several large New York projects.” Such lapses in oversight never happen with government spending projects!

As I’ve noted before, “South Florida is corrupt and weird.” And just how corrupt and how weird is it?

First, corruption: The New Times, Miami’s alternative weekly, has issued corrupt local politician trading cards, “commemorating those halcyon days when bankruptcy loomed, graft was common, and lawmen busted bad pols like fishermen nail snook in the Keys.” What I find odd is that, given the long litany of corrupt South Florida politicians, they only found room for seven cards.

Now, weirdness: For what may be the first time ever anywhere, this week in Miami a couple of dumb hoodlums tried to sell a stolen shark to a fish market. The shark was apparently alive as they dragged it through the streets — and even took it onto the Metromover, an elevated trolley that runs in a circuit around downtown Miami.

Rob Orta, an employee at Casablanca Fish Market, told television station WSVN that the men offered his business the shark.

“But we don’t buy sharks off the street,” Orta told the station.

Wildlife officials later determined the animal was a nurse shark. The case could result in misdemeanor charges of improper killing and disposal of an animal and selling a shark without a license.

One resident of the area where the shark was dumped said he didn’t know what was going on at first.

“It was a relief that it was a shark,” said Keith Smith. “When I first saw it, I thought it was a body because of all the shootings that have been going on.”

For more on Miami corruption and weirdness see here and here.

(Thanks to Margaret Griffis and Jen Mass for the tips.)