reelection

Voting the Bums Back In

by Ryan Young on August 12, 2010

in Politics as Usual, Zeitgeist

Many people think change is in the air. Voters are angry. And they want to throw the bums out. That’s the dominant narrative this election cycle. But at least during primary season, that narrative is fitting poorly with actual election results. Politico reports:

Six incumbents have lost this season: Sens. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) and Bob Bennett (R-Utah) and Reps. Alan Mollohan (D-W.Va.), Bob Inglis (R-S.C.), Carolyn Kilpatrick (D-Mich.) and Parker Griffith (R-Ala.). Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, pointed out in Arena that factoring for those losses translated into a 98.3 percent win rate for incumbents so far in 2010.

That 98.3 percent win rate will drop on Election Day. But probably not by much. Not even if one or both chambers switch parties. In 2008, incumbents running for re-election had a 94.9 percent success rate. In 2006, when Congress changed parties, the re-election rate was still right around 94 percent. The last time re-election rates went as low as 90 percent was in 1992 — nearly two decades ago.

The sad truth is that incumbents are safe. It doesn’t matter that Congress’ approval ratings are in the low teens. Voters just aren’t going to throw out very many bums. Voters may despise Congress as an institution, but most people have positive opinions of their own representative.

That’s why the average tenure in the House is more than 14 years, or seven terms. And most turnover isn’t from losing elections. It’s from retirement, or running for other office, or death; for many, politics is literally a lifelong career.

So expect a lot of familiar faces to be sworn in when the 112th Congress convenes in January, even if power changes hands.

Though I will, of course, be very happy if events prove me wrong.

The Shock of the Not New

by Richard Morrison on January 12, 2009 · 2 comments

in Politics as Usual, Zeitgeist

It was, of course, inevitable that after a general election, political observers would be talking about everything in Washington suddenly being new. A new president(-elect), a new administration, a new New Mexico corruption scandal; none of this comes as a surprise. What is interesting, however, is that some people are also referring to the “new leadership” in Congress.

Now, as we all know, leadership positions in Congress are often based on seniority, especially in that plush assisted living community known as the U.S. Senate. This means that in order to climb your way to the top of the mountain and become a committee chair, it takes time. The faces you’ll see presiding over hearings during the 111th Congress will generally be the same ones that have been frightening small children in our nation’s capital for decades.

So, just for the record, lets take a look at some of the dewy-eyed youngsters who will be running things in the 111th and how long they’ve been avoiding getting real jobs:

Judiciary – Patrick Leahy (VT) 34 years
Foreign Relations – John Kerry (MA) 24 years
Appropriations – Daniel Inouye (HI) 46 years [+4 years in the House]
Budget – Kent Conrad (ND) 22 years
Homeland Security – Joe Lieberman (CT) 20 years
Environment & Public Works – Barbara Boxer (CA) 16 years [+10 years in the House]
Energy & Natural Resources – Jeff Bingaman (NM) 26 years
Health, Education, Labor & Pensions – Ted Kennedy (MA) 47 years
Armed Forces – Carl Levin (MI) 30 years
Intelligence Select – Dianne Feinstein (CA) 17 years
Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs – Chris Dodd (CT) 28 years [+6 years in the House]
Rules & Administration – Chuck Schumer (NY) 10 years [+18 years in the House]
Agriculture – Tom Harkin (IA) 24 years [+10 years in the House]
Veterans Affairs – Daniel Akaka (HI) 19 years [+13 years in the House]
Small Business & Entrepreneurship – Mary Landrieu (LA) 12 years
Commerce, Science & Transportation – Jay Rockefeller (WV) 24 years
Finance – Max Baucus (MT) 31 years [+3 years in the House]
Indian Affairs – Byron Dorgan (ND) 17 years [+11 years in the House]
Ethics Select – Tim Johnson (SD) 12 years [+10 years in the House]
Aging Select – Herb Kohl (WI) 20 years

According to my rough calculations, that makes 479 years worth of, um, experience among the current Senate committee chairs. If we expand that to include total Congressional tenure, we bump the total up to 564 years. This is, of course, not counting years spent as Lieutenant Governor, State Tax Commissioner or Municipal Animal Control Supervisor.

If you’re one of those sentimental people who thinks institutional memory is important, then you may very well be happy with this state of affairs. Whatever else it is, though, “new” it most definitely is not.