Sen. Harry Reid

“Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will bring a sweeping energy and climate bill to the floor as early as the week of July 26, including a controversial cap on emissions from power plants,” environmental reporter Darren Samuelsohn writes today in Politico.

Except that Reid — like Sens. John Kerry (D.-Mass.), Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) – won’t call a spade a spade.

“I don’t use that,” Reid said, referring to the term cap-and-trade. “Those words are not in my vocabulary. We’re going to work on pollution.”

For years, so-called progressive politicians clamored for cap-and-trade — the Kyoto Protocol, the McCain-Lieberman bill, the Lieberman-Warner bill, the Waxman-Markey bill, etc.

No longer. Thanks to the educational efforts of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, Americans for Prosperity, Americans for Tax Reform, National Taxpayers Union, American Conservative Union, FreedomWorks, the Heritage Foundation, National Center for Public Policy Research, and other free-market/limited government organizations, the public came to understand that cap-and-trade is a hidden tax on energy. By the end of 2009, cap-and-”tax” had become a political liability, and this year proponents fear even to speak its name – especially as the November elections approach.

So what’s a poor progressive politician to do? Why, dissemble, obfuscate, and prevaricate to fool the voter. 

The problem with this strategy — beyond the sheer dishonesty of it — is that people aren’t as dim as progressive politicians assume. Most people do not spend their time monitoring Congress, but they don’t need to. Numerous watchdog groups are ready to pounce on every ploy to steal our liberty and prosperity, and in the Age of the Internet, information travels fast.

Reid and company are fooling themselves if they believe rebranding cap-and-trade as “pollution limits” will blunt public opposition to energy taxes.

In today’s E&E TV interview with Monica Trauzzi (http://www.eenews.net/tv/), UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer did not balk at Trauzzi’s statement that, “Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has indicated that the Senate may not see floor action on climate until next year.” Nor did he bat an eye when she said that the Obama administration seems to have ”shifted to using the Clean Air Act to regulate emissions.” Like many observers, de Boer appears to have low expectations for the Waxman-Markey bill, at least for this year.

Nonetheless, de Boer spoke as if he expected President Obama to accomplish great things at Copenhagen climate conference in December: “From an international point of view, from the point of view of U.N. negotiations it’s not essential that this legislation be finalized, but that statement of political intent from the president — that’s the thing that really counts in the international arena.”

Oh really — like President Bill Clinton’s statement of political intent when he signed the Kyoto Protocol in November 1998? Clinton’s signature proved to be worth little from ”the point of view of U.N. negotiations,” because Clinton dared not submit the treaty to the U.S. Senate for a debate and vote on ratification.

The House passed Waxman-Markey by a razor thin (219-212) margin. In the Senate, proponents will need to find a three-fifths (60-vote) super-majority to defeat a GOP filibuster.  To ratify Kyoto II, Obama would need to assemble a two-thirds super-majority. In the Copenhagen round, the EU is pushing for tougher emission reduction targets than those in Waxman-Markey.

If President Obama, Sen. Reid, and Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) prove unable to assemble 60 votes to pass Waxman-Markey in the Senate, what are the odds that they could line up 67 votes to ratify Kyoto II?

Mr. de Boer is mistaken. The fate of Waxman-Markey largely foreshadows and determines the fate of Kyoto II.