Economy

This morning I read with interest – and amazement – the above headline.  Does our president live in the same world that I inhabit?  He’s worried about America’s increasing indebtedness and is pushing for a massive expansion of health entitlements (aka wealth redistribution programs) and the cap-and-tax global warming initiatives (aka wealth redistribution programs) and a host of other other wealth-destroying regulatory programs. Yet, he’s worried about America’s growing debt?

Our political system is only now perhaps emerging from a foolish policy of lowering credit standards to encourage universal home ownership.  We’re now about to lower credit standards for health and energy investments.  In effect, the problems of subprime mortgages are now being universalized.  But, as in the subprime case, we’re assured that these moves will actually lower the national debt! Does reality have any relevancy?

“[A] government can spend or invest only what it takes away from its citizens… its additional spending and investment curtails the citizens’ spending and investment to the full extent of its quantity.”

-Ludwig von Mises, Human Action, 4th ed., (Irvington-on-Hudson New York: Foundation for Economic Education, 1996 [1949], p. 744.

Question: What do you get when you combine a $700 billion “stimulus” package, $1.1 trillion in wealth-destroying regulatory compliance costs, a mountainous non-discretionary entitlement obligation, bailouts for large manufacturers, an small army of unelected czars, and a $1.4 federal budget deficit?

Answer: Way too much government!

In a new CEI paper, One Nation, Ungovernable?, Clyde Wayne Crews lays out an agenda for setting America on the path to economic recovery. From lifting burdensome regulations and restrictions on executive compensation to fostering competition and restraining federal spending, Crews calls for an end to the “bailout culture” that’s spread throughout the capitol, and a return to more responsible policies that promote growth and liberty.

As Crews notes, “If government intervention were stimulative, the nation should be overflowing with wealth and job creation already.” Obviously, the folks on Capitol Hill got it wrong. Wealth comes from policies that unleash the creativity and industriousness of private citizens and companies, not from massive regulation or wasteful government  “investment.”  Deregulation and markets encourage competition and growth and create jobs.

Calling all legislators: please take a few moments and read One Nation, Ungovernable? Fret not, at only six pages, it’s far shorter than most of the tax-and-spend bills you’ll see this year.

I am shocked — shocked — that $6 million of stimulus money went to a company accused of “overbilling, bribery of union officials and other alleged improprieties on several large New York projects.” Such lapses in oversight never happen with government spending projects!

I admire Dan Ikenson’s work on trade issues at Cato. Usually I agree with his views. A notable exception is his post yesterday on Cato’s blog – “Too much hysteria about trade.”

No, Dan wasn’t hitting the current climate of China-bashing or the Teamsters’ on-going campaign against Mexican trucking and NAFTA or the “Buy American” provisions in the stimulus bill. Dan instead was taking to task newspapers like the Washington Post that have been warning readers about the rising tide of protectionism in this world economic downturn.

He writes:

The fact of the matter is that there isn’t any discernible trend toward protectionism in the United States or in the world right now. World leaders issue warnings about the consequences of protectionism, but there are not trends. There are incidences, but no trends.

He uses now-US Trade Representative Ron Kirk’s Senate testimony as evidence of the Obama Administration’s support for open trade and for enforcement of trade rules.

I beg to differ. Kirk’s testimony, of course, reiterates President Obama’s Trade Agenda, which, while including some good rhetoric about the importance of open trade, strongly endorses the need to focus on non-trade issues in trade agreements, such as those involving labor and the environment. Here’s what Kirk said:

I respectfully submit that two strong steps toward restoring domestic confidence in open markets are a real and renewed commitment to enforcement of our trade rules, including those addressing labor and the environment,

And –

. . . to ensure that the way we promote trade reflects our country’s values about economic progress and justice, including through the advancement of internationally recognized labor and environmental standards.

Such issues, as Jagdish Bhagwati has often written, really act as non-tariff trade barriers and force poorer countries to adopt our regulatory schemes in these areas (to “level the playing field”) even when they don’t have the resources.

Dan may not realize that U.S. policymakers such as the Energy Department Secretary and others are seriously considering imposing carbon tariffs on countries (read China and India) that aren’t taking appropriate steps to restrict carbon emissions. Again, that would be a good way to level the playing field and improve U.S. competitiveness. Not protectionism?

Food safety is another area where protectionism may rear its ugly head under the guise of protecting consumers but actually setting detailed standards that may rely more on procedures than the safety of the end product. A bill recently introduced in the House could easily be used to block foreign competition.

And let’s not forget the stimulus package and the infamous “Buy American” provisions, which mandate that any company receiving government funding has to use “made in America” goods, such as iron and steel. The stimulus legislation also restricts companies receiving bailout funds from hiring foreign workers and restricts those firms receiving Trouble Assets Relief Program (TARP) funds from hiring foreign nationals holding H-1B visas unless they can prove they could not hire U.S. citizens instead.

The Obama Team’s emphasis on enforcement issues seems benign to Dan. But take a look at what Rep. Sander Levin, head of the trade subcommittee of the House Ways and Means Committee is cooking up on trade enforcement. Besides promising lots more WTO complaints, the legislative plan is to put back in place provisions on U.S. antidumping and countervailing duties that were changed under President Bush because they weren’t WTO-compliant. But don’t interpret that as protectionism, Levin was quoted as saying, since its purpose is to “enforce the rule of law and the openness of markets.”

“Hysteria” about trade protectionism?  Think it’s not coming from the media, Dan, but from trade protectionists.

Good article today by Bloomberg columnist Michael Sesit, who lays out the protectionist actions many countries are taking in the midst of the worldwide economic slump and warns that accelerated trade protectionism would plunge the world into a depression.

Unless governments get serious about arresting the trend soon, the chatter about 2009 morphing into a replay of the Great Depression will become a self-fulfilling prophesy. The U.S. Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 increased duties on more than 20,000 goods, inviting retaliation by other countries. Within two years of the law’s enactment, global trade declined 70 percent.

One of the signs of increased protectionism in the U.S. comes on the tail of the stimulus bill’s “Buy American” provisions, which mandate that public projects funded by the package must use goods, including iron and steel, manufactured in the U.S. Not satisfied with that, now the steel industry wants to protect the rest of its market by increasing tariffs on imported steel. According to today’s Wall Street Journal, expect to see steelmakers file anti-dumping complaints this spring. They’ll have to wait a bit, ‘though, because their profits during the first three-quarters of 2008 were healthy, and one can assume that wouldn’t make a strong case.

February 1st 2009 is the day that California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s per-drink tax increase will go into effect throughout the state. The tax hike will be a seemingly small 5 cent increase on beer, wine, and spirits in an attempt to in an attempt to shrink the state’s budget deficit of $40 billion.

Is this a wise idea? Well, “sin taxes” like those applied to drinking and smoking are, generally, intended as deterrents against an activity some government agent believes is harmful to “the public”. But discouraging people from drinking in California is like Vegas charging gamblers extra money each time they place a bet in a casino–it could have very negative consequences for economic well-being of an industry that the state relies on for a thriving economy.

In 2005 the wine industry provided California with $3.2 billion in taxes, licenses and fees. California wineries, both as agriculture and tourism are profit-powerhouses within the American economy (California wine production has a $51.8 billion impact on California and $125.3 billion on the U.S. economy at large and provides 800,000 people with jobs), but like just about all other industries wine production is suffering through the current financial crisis. Worldwide, sales are down for wine, especially at the higher price points (though you wouldn’t know it if you happened to be an economist at the white house) and things are likely to get worse as the global economy falters.

Called a “per-drink” tax, the raise is meant to hit consumers of alcoholic drinks, an arguably an unwise consumer to target, the tax actually hits bar and restaurant owners harder than consumers and potentially will affect wineries and vineyards that make a lot of their profit from distribution to those bars and restaurants.

Increased prices and reduced foot-traffic are forcing restaurant and bar owners to either raise prices and purchase smaller quantities of alcohol or to buy less. Tumbling profits and rising prices are forcing producers and distributors to make some tough choices such as cutting back the workforce or cutting production.

All of it trickles down to the bar and restaurant owner already dealing with fewer customers, increasing cost for food ingredients, and smaller profits–for them it is more than a nickel; it could be the difference between staying in business or shutting their doors and letting all of their workers go.

Californians should push back hard on this idea and the Governor should be careful that in this latest round of blood-letting, he doesn’t bleed California businesses dry.

President-elect Obama’s proposed economic stimulus package (on which Doug Bandow commented recently) isn’t even in Congress yet, and the the rent-seeking has already started. ClimateWire reports:

As lawmakers and President-elect Barack Obama mull another economic stimulus package, businesses and congressional leaders are jockeying to be in position to receive the first trickles of federal cash intended to stem losses of jobs and raise energy efficiency.

Two sectors, in particular, stand to benefit, judging by the debate so far. Labor unions are pressing for a package that focuses on “green jobs” like renewable energy generation and retrofitting buildings for energy efficiency, as well as traditional construction projects aimed at roads, bridges, schools and transit.

The other major beneficiary is shaping up to be “smart grid” improvements, or advanced technologies aimed at increasing the efficiency of the country’s aging electricity infrastructure and accommodating emerging energy sources such as solar power….

An example of the type of business that stands to capitalize is Silicon Valley’s Echelon, a 20-year-old company that makes systems that allow energy systems and office buildings to communicate with each other online. Echelon’s LonWorks platform is used in buildings and transportation systems worldwide, most notably in Honeywell heating and air conditioning systems but also in the New York City subway system, Army Corps of Engineers facilities and McDonald’s restaurants.

If new power grid systems are so efficient, why would they need to be subsidized? Granted, some utility franchises may create distortions and inefficiencies, due to their government-granted monopoly status, but utilities are still businesses, and businesses always seek to cut costs. Going “green” may soon become the last refuge of the rent seeker. (Paid subscription required for ClimateWire link.)

In today’s Wall Street Journal, the Brookings Institution’s Clifford Winston points out some critical pitfalls likely to face the infrastructure spending element of President-elect Obama’s “stimulus” plan:

One of the biggest killers of all is that states insist on allocating federal transportation funds through a politically devised formula. The result? Smooth, well-paved rural highways and worn-out urban roadways that are paved with a layer of asphalt too thin to withstand heavy use and are therefore in need of excessive, costly maintenance.

But don’t blame the states for all the inefficient use of highway dollars. Federal regulations have also inflated the cost of providing roads, trains and so much more for a public on the move.

It takes the nation’s busiest airports decades and billions of dollars to build new runways, for example, because of onerous regulations imposed by the Federal Aviation Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency. Davis-Bacon mandates, which effectively require that “prevailing” union wages (often much higher than the actually prevailing market wage) be paid to workers on any construction project receiving federal funds, also drive up the costs of roads and other federal transport projects. The Federal Transit Act also makes it extremely expensive to lay off transit employees.

Winston is right to point all this out, and he makes some sensible recommendations, including reform of Davis-Bacon. However, reforming the federal infrastructre spending process can only lessen wasteful spending so much, since as long as government is involved, politics will remain a part of the process. (Still, a light touch is too much to expect from Washington, so Obama taking Winson’s advice into consideration is to be hoped for.) For more on Davis-Bacon, see here.

Tomorrow, electric utilities and green groups team up at the National Press Club to ask for billions of new spending on what they term energy efficiency. New versions of such stimulus and bailout proposals appear almost daily.

We spend a lot of time at CEI now proposing wealth-enhancing alternatives to these massive wealth transfers to government contractors and corporations. The right “stimulus” instead liberalizes wealth creation, it doesn’t spread around the dwindling wealth that already exists, like a self-appointed Benevolent Vulture; I submit one important approach–especially in today’s crisis situation–is to inventory all the regulations that impact a small business as it grows, and look hard at rollbacks. Below is the rough inventory I’ve compiled over time, but I’m sure it’s out of date and some things have changed. And this doesn’t even addess industry-specific rules (see endnote), which are probably the ones most in need of reform. I heartily welcome any additions and subtractions. We can’t manage something if we can’t measure it.

FEDERAL WORKPLACE REGULATION IMPOSED ON GROWING BUSINESSES* (Draft—Wayne Crews)

ONE EMPLOYEE

-Fair Labor Standards Act (overtime and minimum wage [27% min. wage increase since 1990])
-Social Security matching and deposits
-Medicare, FICA
-Military Selective Service Act (90 days leave for reservists; rehire discharged veterans)
-Equal Pay Act (no sex discrimination in wages)
-Immigration Reform Act (eligibility must be documented)
-Federal Unemployment Tax Act (unemployment compensation)
-Employee Retirement Income Security Act (standards for pension and benefit plans)
-Occupational Safety and Health Act
-Polygraph Protection Act

4 EMPLOYEES: ALL THE ABOVE, PLUS

-Immigration Reform Act (no discrimination with regard to national origin, citizenship, or intention to obtain citizenship)

15 EMPLOYEES: ALL THE ABOVE, PLUS

-Civil Rights Act Title VII (no discrimination with regard to race, color, origin, religion, or sex; pregnancy-related protections; recordkeeping)
-Americans with Disabilities Act (no discrimination, “reasonable accommodations”)

20 EMPLOYEES: ALL THE ABOVE, PLUS

-Age Discrimination Act (no discrimination on the basis of age against those 40 and older)
-Older Worker Benefit Protection Act (benefits for older workers must be commensurate with younger workers)
-COBRA (continuation of medical benefits for up to 18 months upon termination)

25 EMPLOYEES: ALL THE ABOVE, PLUS

-Health Maintenance Organization Act (HMO Option required)
-Veterans’ Reemployment Act (reemployment for persons returning from active duty, reserve, or Nat’l Guard)

50 EMPLOYEES: ALL THE ABOVE, PLUS

-Family and Medical Leave Act (12 weeks unpaid leave or care for newborn or ill family member)

100 EMPLOYEES: ALL THE ABOVE, PLUS

-WARN Act (60-days written plant closing notice)
-Civil Rights Act (annual EEO-1 form)

*Assumes non-union, non-government contractor, with interstate operations and a basic employee benefits package. Includes general workforce-related regulation only. Omitted are categories such as environmental and consumer product safety regulations, and regulations applying to specific types of businesses such as mining, farming, trucking or financial firms.